沪铜 估值中枢上移

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have reached a new high in 2023 due to a combination of supply disruptions and monetary easing, with a shift from a balanced supply-demand scenario to a shortage [1][4] Supply Factors - Major copper mines such as Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, and Grasberg have faced partial or complete shutdowns since 2025, leading to a global copper supply shortage [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees (TC) have dropped to a historical low of -42.6 USD/dry ton, indicating fierce competition for copper resources among smelters [1] - Despite the decline in TC, large smelters maintain cash flow due to good returns from by-products like sulfuric acid, but potential price drops in these by-products could lead to cash flow losses and temporary production cuts [1] Demand Factors - Global refined copper consumption from January to August 2025 reached 18.83 million tons, a 5.9% year-on-year increase, with China accounting for 10.62 million tons, up 11.05% [2] - The recent rise in copper prices to over 80,000 CNY/ton has had a mild suppressive effect on downstream demand, contrasting with previous price surges where demand feedback was more negative [2] - The market's perception of acceptable copper prices is gradually increasing as supply tightens [2] Macroeconomic Influences - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key macro driver supporting copper prices, with two potential cuts anticipated by the end of the year [3] - Recent U.S. CPI data indicates manageable inflation, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate cuts [3] - The COMEX copper market is experiencing a premium over LME copper, attracting copper inflows into the U.S. and tightening supply in non-U.S. regions [3] Overall Market Outlook - A robust fundamental backdrop and expectations of monetary easing support upward trends in copper prices, with supply shortages unlikely to reverse in the short term [4] - Strong demand from sectors like electricity and renewable energy provides marginal growth [4] - The market needs to monitor macroeconomic factors such as tariff policies and overseas interest rate changes, as these could significantly impact copper prices in the short term [4]