“十五五”中国非道路移动机械行业市场全景调研与投资前景展望分析（2026）-中金企信发布

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid transition of commercial vehicles and non-road mobile machinery towards new energy sources, driven by China's dual carbon goals and supportive policies [3][10][11] Industry Overview - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in China is projected to rise from 2.4% in 2020 to 14.9% by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47.7% from 2020 to 2024 [3][10] - The market size for new energy engineering machinery in China is expected to reach $1.8 billion in 2024, with a penetration rate of 7.9% [7][10] Market Dynamics - The transition to new energy is driven by high pollutant emissions from traditional vehicles, with significant carbon emissions attributed to commercial vehicles [10][11] - The economic advantages of new energy vehicles are increasing due to breakthroughs in battery technology and reduced lifecycle costs, with lithium carbonate prices dropping from 510,000 yuan/ton in early 2023 to 75,800 yuan/ton by the end of 2024 [11][12] Segment Analysis - In the new energy commercial vehicle sector, the fastest growth is seen in heavy-duty trucks, with sales expected to increase by 139.36% from 2023 to 2024 [15] - The new energy bus market is also expanding, with sales projected to reach 328,900 units in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 56.28% [13][14] Non-Road Mobile Machinery - The electric penetration rates for non-road mobile machinery are expected to rise, particularly for loaders and mining trucks, driven by the need for energy efficiency and lower operational costs [17][20] - The market for new energy loaders and wide-body dump trucks is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 7.4 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan respectively by 2024 [21] Future Outlook - The overall market for non-road mobile machinery is entering a new growth cycle, supported by government policies and increasing demand in infrastructure and mining sectors [20][24] - The export value of China's engineering machinery products is anticipated to reach $52.859 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.87% [20]