Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is in a critical adjustment phase characterized by "weak recovery, strong differentiation, and deep transformation" as it transitions from "stabilization" to "recovery" [1][2][24] Market Overview - The real estate market has entered a "stop falling and stabilize" phase, with significant structural differentiation intensifying [2][24] - In 2024 Q4, the market saw a rapid start, but there was a decline in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, with the transaction area in 114 cities dropping to a historical low in July and August [2][3] - The cumulative transaction area for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 8% year-on-year, indicating persistent weak market demand and buyer confidence [3][21] Residential Market Dynamics - The residential market faces both risks and opportunities, with risks stemming from reduced new supply and opportunities arising from product upgrades [21][23] - The transaction area for new homes in 100 cities is expected to decline by 18% year-on-year in 2025, despite a potential 10% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q4 [21][23] Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in 30 key cities has seen a continuous month-on-month decline, with major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing limited growth momentum despite policy support [6][10] Land Market Insights - The land market has shown signs of stabilization, with total transaction amounts in 300 cities increasing compared to last year, particularly in Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou, which together accounted for 27% of the total [10][11] - The concentration in the land market is higher than in the second-hand market, indicating a potential for sustained higher activity in certain cities [10] Property Management Sector - The property management sector has shown better performance than the broader real estate market, with a shift towards lean operations and a focus on existing assets [11][20] - As of mid-2025, the total managed area by 43 listed property companies reached 6.3 billion square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.5% [11][20] - The proportion of third-party managed areas remains stable at 65%, with leading companies achieving growth above the industry average [17][20] Future Opportunities and Challenges - The property sector is expected to face new challenges due to product upgrades, which may increase maintenance costs and technical requirements [23][24] - There is a potential for property companies to leverage opportunities through collaboration and innovative service models, enhancing customer satisfaction and exploring value-added services [23][24]
物业市场“止跌回稳”快于房地产市场
3 6 Ke·2025-10-28 02:25