特朗普拟提前数月宣布鲍威尔继任者，五强名单锁定美联储新掌门

Core Viewpoint - President Trump may announce a nominee to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the end of the year, with Powell's term ending in May next year. The candidate pool has been narrowed down to five finalists [2][3]. Candidate Selection Process - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to conduct a second round of interviews with the current list of candidates next month, followed by submitting a more streamlined nomination list to the President [3]. - The five finalists include current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, along with leading candidates Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, and Rick Rieder from BlackRock [3][4]. Candidate Dynamics - Hassett and Warsh are viewed as the frontrunners due to their close relationships with Trump, which many Fed observers believe will be a key factor in this significant personnel decision during Trump's remaining term [4]. - Trump has previously indicated he is not considering Mnuchin for the position, but sources suggest Mnuchin could still be a potential contender if Trump is dissatisfied with other candidates [3][5]. Recent Developments - Trump had considered announcing a successor earlier this year due to dissatisfaction with Powell's refusal to cut interest rates, but a vacancy created by the resignation of a Fed governor allowed for a new appointment [6]. - Mnuchin has initiated a strategy to delay the nomination process, conducting interviews with 11 candidates publicly [7]. Monetary Policy Context - The public selection process has encouraged candidates to engage in the monetary policy debate, with Mnuchin amplifying calls for the Fed to consider more aggressive rate cuts [8]. - The Fed recently cut rates by 25 basis points, but there is a push from some, including Miran, for a larger cut of 50 basis points, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [9]. Timing and Implications - Traditionally, the White House announces a new Fed chair three to four months before the current chair's term ends, allowing the incoming chair to guide market expectations on interest rates. However, an early announcement could put the successor in a difficult position regarding future policy decisions [10]. - The new Fed chair is likely to take over Miran's current position on the Fed board, which will allow them to participate in upcoming rate decision meetings before officially starting their term in mid-May [10].