GDPD(SH:600795) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-28 02:28Performance Review - The company's 3Q25 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with operating revenue of 47.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%, aligning with market expectations [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, operating revenue reached 125.2 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.78 billion yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year, indicating that the company has met the lower limit of market expectations for the full year [1] - The improvement in the thermal power segment's electricity generation and cost reduction significantly contributed to the positive performance [1] Thermal Power Segment - In 3Q25, the on-grid electricity generation increased by 6.9% year-on-year, with notable growth in regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Yunnan, Guangdong, and Shandong, ranging from 15% to 35% [1] - The average coal price for the company decreased by approximately 13% year-on-year, supporting the performance of coal-fired power generation [1] - The company added 2.66 million kilowatts of new installed capacity in 3Q25 [1] Renewable Energy Segment - The company added a total of 6.84 million kilowatts of new installed capacity from the beginning of the year to date, surpassing the annual target set at the beginning of the year, primarily driven by solar power [1] - The on-grid electricity generation from solar power saw a significant year-on-year increase of 105.9%, although the average selling price decreased by 8.3% year-on-year to 376 yuan per megawatt-hour [1] - The high growth in installed capacity is expected to lead to a double-digit year-on-year increase in profitability for the renewable energy business [1] Financial Metrics - The financial expense ratio remained stable year-on-year, with financial expenses decreasing by 1.7% to 1.48 billion yuan [2] - The management expense ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 0.9%, with management expenses down 30.3% to 412 million yuan [2] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 15.5% year-on-year to 42.8 billion yuan [2] Development Trends - The company has an attractive dividend yield, with plans to distribute cash dividends semi-annually from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a total dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% and a minimum dividend per share of 0.22 yuan [3] - As of October 27, the current stock price corresponds to a 2025 estimated dividend yield of 4.9%, indicating long-term investment value considering performance growth and dividend capability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged at 7.7 billion yuan and 8.2 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 times for 2025 and 11.5 times for 2026 [4] - The target price has been raised by 18% to 6.5 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 22% from the current stock price, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.0 times and 14.1 times for 2025 and 2026 [4]