时隔十年，沪指重回4000点！专家：或将进入更长期“健康牛”通道

Core Points - The A-share market has reached a historic moment as the Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 4000-point mark for the first time since August 2015, marking a significant milestone in the market's recovery [1][2] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased dramatically from approximately 68 trillion yuan a year ago to 107.87 trillion yuan as of October 27, 2023, reflecting a surge of 39.87 trillion yuan [1] - The recent bull market has been driven by new technologies and emerging industries, particularly in sectors like technology and new energy, with leading stocks such as CATL, BYD, and Cambricon reaching new historical highs [1] Market Activity - Trading volume and turnover have remained active, with daily trading volumes rising from below 800 billion yuan to peaks of 3.48 trillion yuan following policy implementations, and a record of 40 consecutive trading days with turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - Analysts attribute the market's success in breaking the 4000-point barrier to multiple factors, including economic transformation and the influx of capital into hard technology sectors [2] Expert Analysis - Experts believe that the current market valuation levels are still below the highs of 2015, indicating that the market is in the early stages of a bull market, with the potential for further upward movement beyond the 4000-point mark [3] - The current market dynamics differ from 2015, as the driving logic is now based on hard technology rather than leverage, leading to more rational valuations and noticeable structural differentiation [3][4] Future Outlook - There is a consensus that the market may experience short-term fluctuations or adjustments after surpassing the 4000-point mark, as some investors may choose to take profits [5] - Long-term prospects for the A-share market will depend on the ability of the hard technology sector to translate into sustained profit growth, with the potential for a healthier bull market if the current technology cycle continues [5][6] - Historical trends suggest that after minor adjustments in a bull market, sectors with upward industrial trends, such as technology and cyclical industries, are likely to outperform [6]