同花顺(300033)2025Q3点评：利润释放超预期 估值有望继续企稳

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, up 85% year-on-year. The growth in performance is primarily driven by increased activity in the capital markets and the continuous optimization of the core product matrix, which has boosted demand for financial information services and generated additional revenue from value-added services. Additionally, the company has increased online brand promotion, leading to growth in advertising and internet promotion service revenue [1][2]. Event - On October 22, 2025, the company disclosed its third-quarter financial report [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 39.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, reflecting an 85.3% increase. Cash flow from sales of goods and services reached 4.5 billion yuan, up 77.7% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, revenue grew by 56.7% year-on-year to 1.48 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 144.5% to 700 million yuan. Cash flow from sales increased by 85.3% to 1.77 billion yuan, and contract liabilities rose by 69.5% from the beginning of the year to 2.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.4% [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The company's profit elasticity is significantly greater than its revenue elasticity, primarily due to improvements in costs and expenses. The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was approximately 89.0%, compared to 85.8% year-on-year. The selling expense ratio was 16.3% (down from 17.0% year-on-year), and the R&D expense ratio was 26.5% (down from 37.9% year-on-year). The core business model has low marginal costs for promotion, resulting in higher profit elasticity during periods of revenue growth, which reflects the company's competitive advantage [3]. Investment Outlook - The company has raised its full-year performance expectations due to strong growth in the third quarter and a healthy level of advance payments. The revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 6.18 billion yuan, 6.86 billion yuan, and 6.90 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.7%, 10.9%, and 0.6%, respectively, resulting in a three-year CAGR of 18.1%. The net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.20 billion yuan, 3.85 billion yuan, and 3.92 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 75.7%, 20.3%, and 1.8%, respectively, leading to a three-year CAGR of 21.1%. As of October 24, 2025, the company's dynamic PE valuation is 60.72 times, with a median PE of 53.25 times and an average of 64.15 times over the past three years, indicating a margin of safety in the current valuation. The company maintains a "buy" rating [4].