三只松鼠(300783)：收入增长稳健 盈利能力短期承压

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing an increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 2.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.91% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million yuan, down 56.79% year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit was 6 million yuan, a decrease of 83.45% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin improved to 25.71%, up 1.25 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin was 0.98%, down 1.48 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The non-recurring net profit margin was 0.28%, down 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [2] Expense Analysis - Total expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 25.24%, an increase of 3.29 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales expense ratio was 21.33%, up 2.24 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Management expense ratio was 3.17%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points year-on-year [2] - R&D expense ratio was 0.60%, up 0.32 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Financial expense ratio was 0.14%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively promoting its "D+N" omnichannel model, enhancing supply chain efficiency [2] - Online operations are being refined, while offline distribution is accelerating to adapt to a full range of products and channels [2] - The production capacity of the snack and nut supply chain is increasing, which is expected to lower costs and strengthen key products [2] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.262 billion, 12.872 billion, and 14.563 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.03%, 14.30%, and 13.14% respectively [3] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 205 million, 437 million, and 531 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -49.80%, 113.35%, and 21.63% respectively [3] - Corresponding P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 45.8, 21.5, and 17.7 times [3] - The company is given a "recommend" rating based on these projections [3]