Group 1 - Allianz Global Investors' Chief Investment Officer Michael Krautzberger anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC during the meeting on October 28-29, continuing its "insurance-style rate cut cycle" [1] - The policy rate is expected to decline to a more neutral level of 3.375% by mid-2026, with discussions on ending quantitative tightening expected to intensify [1] - The Fed's recent shift towards a more employment-focused policy response is influenced by unprecedented political pressure, with Powell describing the recent rate cut as a "risk management-style cut" [1][2] Group 2 - Powell indicated that the economic outlook has not changed significantly since the September meeting, but emphasized increasing downside risks to employment [2] - The upcoming inflation and labor market data will heavily influence the FOMC's decisions, with a potential for further rate cuts if significant surprises occur [2][3] - The Fed may end its balance sheet reduction by the first quarter of next year, with a possible announcement in October or December [3] Group 3 - The market has largely priced in the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, and maintaining rates could lead to significant market volatility [3] - Any easing policy's impact will depend on market interpretation of the Fed's motivations, with a preference for a scenario where rate cuts are seen as preventative rather than politically driven [3][4] - There is a high risk of significant policy missteps, particularly if the Fed misjudges inflation driven by tariffs as merely a temporary supply shock [4]
安联：料美联储本月再保险式减息25基点 最迟明年首季结束量化紧缩
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-28 02:56