特朗普突袭俄两大油企，美国油价应声大涨，一场“油价豪赌”开始

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced sanctions against two major Russian energy companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, aiming to cut off funding sources for Russia amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict [1][3]. Group 1: Sanctions and Market Impact - The sanctions include freezing all assets of the companies in the U.S. and prohibiting American businesses from engaging in any commercial dealings with them [1]. - Following the announcement, international markets experienced volatility, with stock prices and oil prices rising sharply [1]. - The sanctions are intended to target Russia's energy exports, which have been a crucial source of revenue for the country since the onset of the Ukraine conflict [1]. Group 2: Political and Economic Strategy - The sanctions serve a dual purpose for Trump: showcasing a strong diplomatic stance while appealing to hawkish voters ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run [1][4]. - Maintaining low domestic oil prices is critical for the Trump administration, as it helps alleviate economic pressure on American households and boosts public approval [4]. - The administration aims to strike a balance between punishing Russia and keeping U.S. oil prices stable to avoid backlash from American consumers [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Limitations - A significant challenge to the effectiveness of the sanctions lies in Russia's ability to continue exporting oil through a "shadow fleet," which involves older ships that evade Western sanctions [5]. - Major buyers of Russian oil, particularly India and China, could undermine the sanctions' impact if they continue to purchase Russian oil at discounted rates [5]. - Analysts predict that while oil prices may see a slight increase in the short term, the long-term effects of the sanctions on U.S. domestic prices remain uncertain [6].