邓正红能源软实力：市场对需求疲软的担忧持续 贸易局势缓和 国际油价小幅走低

Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing downward pressure due to persistent concerns over weak demand, leading to a slight decline in international oil prices on October 27 [1] - OPEC is inclined to moderately increase production in December as part of its ongoing monthly production increase plan aimed at regaining market share [1][2] - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Russian oil companies, which, along with unexpected U.S. demand, is supporting oil prices [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a supply surplus pressure as OPEC has significantly increased production over the past two months, exceeding market absorption capacity, resulting in Brent oil prices dropping to a four-year low [2] - Structural weakness in demand is evident, with the ongoing trade war impacting industrial oil demand, U.S. manufacturing PMI falling below the growth line, and lower-than-expected operating rates in Chinese refineries [2] Major Oil Producers' Strategies - OPEC is transitioning from being a production controller to a technical standard setter, aiming to reshape pricing power through expectation management and geopolitical coordination [2][4] - Russia is adapting by diversifying its market and responding to sanctions, planning to establish a national oil benchmark index to enhance market autonomy [2][3] - Iraq is negotiating its OPEC quota with a goal to reassess its daily production capacity of 5.5 million barrels, maintaining current exports at 3.6 million barrels per day [2] Geopolitical Influences - The U.S.-China trade agreement has established a "substantial framework," but market participants remain cautious about the actual impact on global supply [3] - Historical data indicates that U.S.-China energy trade is significantly affected by tariff policies, with projections showing that U.S. crude oil imports by China could drop to zero by June 2025 [3] Future Competitive Dimensions - The future competition in oil soft power will focus on the ability to reconstruct rules, with OPEC transitioning to a technical standard setter and gradually increasing production to reshape market expectations [3][4] - The oil industry faces challenges from technological homogenization and capital valuation dilemmas, necessitating a reconstruction of the industrial ecosystem [4] - Countries need to effectively convert resource potential into rule-making, value innovation, and alliance management capabilities to secure advantageous positions in the global energy transition [4]