时隔十年 沪指重回4000点！专家称或进入更长期健康牛通道

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a historic milestone with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, indicating the start of a new bull market driven by "hard technology" and a more rational valuation environment [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen significant growth, starting from around 2800 points in September 2024 to surpassing 4000 points in October 2025, marking a substantial recovery from the lows experienced in 2015 [1]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased from approximately 68 trillion yuan to 106.6 trillion yuan within a year, reflecting a rise of 38.6 trillion yuan, primarily driven by emerging industries such as technology and new energy [1]. Trading Activity - A-share trading volume and turnover have surged, with daily trading volumes previously below 800 billion yuan rising to 3.48 trillion yuan post-policy implementation, and a record of 40 consecutive trading days with turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2]. - The market has experienced four instances of daily turnover surpassing 3 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [2]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Economists view the index's return to 4000 points as a significant milestone, reflecting strong confidence in China's economic future and capital market reforms, which may attract more long-term and foreign investments [2]. - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics differ from the 2015 bull market, which was driven by leverage, whereas the current market is characterized by a focus on "hard technology" and more rational valuations [4][5]. Market Adjustments and Trends - Analysts predict that the current market adjustment phase is nearing its end, with historical data suggesting that transitions from valuation-driven to earnings-driven markets typically involve short adjustment periods [4]. - The technology sector's performance is expected to strengthen, with a potential shift towards a more sustainable "healthy bull" market if the new technology cycle continues [6]. Style and Sector Rotation - There is an expectation of style rotation in the market post-adjustment, with technology and cyclical sectors likely to outperform, particularly in the context of ongoing trends in artificial intelligence and related industries [6].