【申万固收|利率】央行将恢复国债买卖，做多重启还是利多出尽？

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will resume open market operations for government bond trading to support market demand and implement a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Group 1: Background - The peak of government bond issuance has passed, and current bond purchases aim to protect demand and avoid excessive volatility in the bond market, which could hinder the transmission of policies to lower overall financing costs [1] - The overall operation of the bond market is stable, and the direct impact of PBOC's bond purchases on the market is manageable [1] - Economic pressures persist, and purchasing bonds to inject liquidity is a necessary aspect of implementing a moderately loose policy [1] Group 2: Pathways - The PBOC may purchase bonds from bank inventories or in the secondary market [1] - Direct purchases from primary dealers' inventories can effectively target liquidity injection with minimal market impact, likely leading to a simultaneous reduction in reserve requirements [1] - Alternatively, purchasing bonds in the secondary market can provide liquidity to a broader range of entities, aligning with future monetary policy frameworks [1] Group 3: Direction - In the short term, net purchases of bonds are expected to dominate [1] - Given the constraints on social credit expansion due to weak economic momentum, government credit expansion remains a crucial driver for economic development [1] - The PBOC's bond trading tools can be used for both buying and selling, with future sales depending on actual needs [1] Group 4: Scale - The expected monthly net purchases of government bonds may not significantly exceed those in 2024 [1] - With government bond issuance for 2025 nearing completion, the demand for monetary policy support is expected to weaken [1] - The bond trading tools can largely be substituted by MLF and reverse repos, suggesting that while bond purchase scales may expand, it could coincide with a reduction in MLF and reverse repo operations [1] Group 5: Impact - Short-term effects may provide a temporary boost, but the positive impact may not be sustainable, with medium to long-term effects likely being neutral [1] - In 2024, PBOC's bond purchases contributed to lowering short-term rates and somewhat facilitated long-term declines, indicating a cautious approach in future bond trading implementation and communication with the market [1] - The core issue in the bond market remains the cost-effectiveness of fixed-income assets, with limited short-term upside for long-duration assets [1]