国开债券ETF(159651)：重启国债买卖后的配置基石，静待时间绽放

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's resumption of government bond trading is seen as a response to the current downward trend in interest rates, with market sentiment remaining optimistic despite the need for further support to sustain this downward trend [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Bond Trading - The overall sentiment in the bond market is positive, but further support is needed to open up more downward space for interest rates [1] - The 10-year government bond needs to effectively break 1.7% to gain momentum, while higher interest rate positions can still be held during favorable market conditions [1] - Investors are advised to focus on higher-yielding long-term bonds, specifically the 30-year and 50-year government bonds [1] Group 2: National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) - The National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) is positioned as a "money+" short-term cash management tool, balancing liquidity management and leverage [1] - As of October 28, 2025, the ETF has increased by 0.05%, with a one-year cumulative increase of 1.59% as of October 27, 2025 [1] - The ETF has a trading volume of 1.90 billion yuan with an active turnover rate of 37.72% [2] Group 3: Performance Metrics of the ETF - The ETF ranks 78 out of 490 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 15.92% for six-month net value growth of 0.61% [2] - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum consecutive monthly increase of 15 months and a maximum increase of 3.90% [2] - The ETF has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [2] Group 4: Tracking and Recovery Metrics - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.014% over the past two months, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [2] - The maximum drawdown over the past six months is 0.12%, with a recovery time of 8 days [2]