美国债务高企，IMF拉响警报！美联储或继续降息？

Group 1: Trump's Visit to Japan - Trump arrived in Tokyo on October 27, marking his first visit to Japan during his second term [1] - During the visit, Trump met with Emperor Naruhito at the Imperial Palace [1] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is finalizing a procurement plan to present during the meeting, which includes purchasing American pickup trucks, soybeans, and natural gas [1] - Takaichi is not expected to commit to any new defense spending targets during the meeting [1] - Trump plans to visit the U.S. Navy base in Yokosuka and board the USS George Washington aircraft carrier [1] Group 2: U.S. Debt Concerns - The IMF warns that by 2030, the U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio will rise over 20 percentage points to 143.4%, setting a new post-pandemic record [2] - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, the highest among wealthy nations tracked by the IMF [2] - The U.S. debt situation is expected to surpass that of Italy and Greece, which previously faced significant scrutiny due to their public finance weaknesses [2] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the U.S. debt is at a dangerous turning point, potentially leading to an "economic heart attack" [2][3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The ongoing increase in U.S. debt provides Trump with more reasons to advocate for significant interest rate cuts [4] - Trump has criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering rates, which he believes is causing substantial interest payments on the national debt [4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed that several candidates, including Hassett and Waller, are in the running for the next Federal Reserve Chair position [4] - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut [4] Group 4: Inflation Data - In September, the U.S. CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, with core CPI increasing 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, below market expectations [5] - Rent and used car prices were significant drags on inflation, indicating weakened demand [5] - The impact of tariffs on goods showed mixed price movements, with slower price increases than previously anticipated, reflecting weak terminal demand [5] - Service inflation remains robust, supporting the case for continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]