Core Insights - Despite recent data release limitations due to the U.S. government shutdown, the economic growth in Q3 appears strong, but a slowdown is expected by the end of the year, followed by a cyclical recovery in early next year [1] - The forecast maintains that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates twice more this year and again twice in the first half of 2026, bringing the terminal rate down to a range of 3%-3.25% [1] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing contradictory phenomena: while the labor market shows signs of fatigue, GDP growth remains resilient [1] - Factors contributing to this divergence include tariff policies, the "One Big Beautiful Bill," wealth distribution inequality, tightening immigration policies, and the AI boom [1] - The K-shaped economy reflects significant disparities in economic performance across different demographic groups and industries [1] Optimistic Scenarios - An optimistic scenario suggests that fiscal stimulus measures, including large-scale tax refunds, introduced in the first half of next year will improve the economic conditions for low-income households, gradually narrowing the "K-shaped" gap [1] - Other potential upward factors include significant productivity gains from AI and a cyclical recovery in the real estate market [1] Risks and Challenges - Although the labor market is expected to maintain a "low hiring, low layoff" pattern, an increase in layoffs could significantly weaken consumer spending [1] - Adjustments in financial markets may suppress the wealth effect, leading to a reduction in high-end consumption [1]
瑞士百达：今年底美国经济增长将放缓 预计美联储年内将再降息两次
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-28 06:03