明年起，房价或迎贬值潮？3大趋势下，该不该买房有数了

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing unprecedented changes after decades of rapid development, with significant improvements in living conditions and a dramatic increase in average housing prices since the housing reform in 1998 [1][3] Historical Price Trends - Housing prices in China have experienced cyclical fluctuations, with major price increases occurring approximately every few years, notably from 2003 to 2007, 2009 to 2011, 2012 to 2014, and 2015 to 2020, before the momentum was halted by the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Recent Market Adjustments - Since the second half of 2021, the Chinese real estate market has shown clear signs of adjustment, with the national average housing price dropping from a peak of 11,100 yuan per square meter to 9,860 yuan by June 2022, reflecting an average decline of over 10% [5] - Among 70 major cities, 48 reported year-on-year price declines by June, indicating that the downturn is widespread rather than isolated [5] Corporate Performance - The performance of real estate companies has significantly declined, with the top 100 firms reporting a cumulative performance drop of 50.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and nearly 80% of these companies experiencing declines exceeding 30% [7] Government Response - In response to the market adjustments, 70 cities have implemented measures to relax real estate regulations, including easing purchase and loan restrictions, lowering down payment ratios, and offering subsidies to buyers [9] Future Price Outlook - Industry experts have differing views on future housing price trends, with some predicting a "devaluation wave" in the coming years, while others emphasize three major trends influencing the market [11] - The adjustment in housing prices is seen as an irreversible trend, with a "volume and price decline" scenario indicating that market adjustments will only conclude when prices return to reasonable levels [11] - The market is facing an "oversupply" situation, with estimates suggesting that the number of vacant homes has reached 100 million, indicating a growing imbalance between supply and demand [11][12] - The aging population in China is expected to reduce the demand for new homes, as the elderly population is projected to exceed 300 million by 2025, while the younger population is declining [12]