陈李：全球牛市幻象——信任的重新分配，对美元的信用质疑会持续吗？

Core Viewpoint - The current global financial market is experiencing an unusual "comprehensive bull market," where major assets are rising in tandem despite economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, driven by a reassessment of asset values due to weakening confidence in the dollar's long-term purchasing power and political neutrality [1]. Group 1: Global Asset Bull Market - Since 2025, major stock market indices have risen, with notable increases in European and Japanese markets, although these improvements alone do not fully explain the global asset price surge [2][9]. - Asset price increases are not driven by accelerated global economic growth, as the IMF predicts a decline in global growth rates for 2025 compared to 2024 [9]. - The rise in asset prices is not a result of further easing of global liquidity, as the marginal increase in global M2 has not significantly exceeded 2024 levels, despite a total M2 of $113 trillion by July 2025 [12][16]. Group 2: Factors Behind Asset Price Increases - The asset price increase is not primarily driven by a technology cycle, such as artificial intelligence, as traditional sectors like finance, consumption, and real estate are also experiencing gains [19][20]. - Geopolitical tensions have not eased; instead, they have intensified, with ongoing trade disputes and tariffs being implemented, contrasting with the rising asset prices [20]. Group 3: Dollar Credit Threats - The weakening dollar reflects structural changes in market confidence regarding its long-term credit and political neutrality, influenced by narrowing interest rate differentials and economic growth expectations [23][27]. - The dollar's decline is not due to actual economic weakness but rather a correction in growth expectations between the U.S. and Europe, with the latter benefiting from aggressive monetary policies [27][28]. - The dollar faces a trust crisis stemming from political, financial, and fiscal dimensions, including the U.S.'s unilateral actions and increasing national debt, which raise concerns about its long-term purchasing power [32][34]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Dollar Credit - The recovery of dollar credit will depend on the return of policy certainty, sustained economic improvement, and the robust operation of monetary policy [41][42][43]. - Changes in the international environment, such as underperformance of other major economies or easing geopolitical tensions, could enhance the dollar's attractiveness [44]. - Long-term improvements in structural issues, including manufacturing return and debt control, are necessary for the restoration of dollar credit [45]. Group 5: Investment Perspective - The current global bull market may represent a redistribution of trust rather than wealth creation, indicating a paradigm shift in investment logic where credit valuation becomes more critical than traditional economic growth metrics [46][47].