现货黄金跌破3960美元 机构：明年跌到3500美元

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of easing geopolitical risks, profit-taking by bullish investors, and short-term liquidity tightening, leading to a significant drop in prices from recent highs [1][2] Factors Contributing to Gold Price Correction - Macroeconomic Environment Changes: The easing of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, reduced trade tensions, and lower expectations of geopolitical conflicts have diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - Technical Overbought Conditions: The market experienced technical selling pressure due to overbought conditions, with implied volatility of gold options nearing levels seen in late April, indicating excessive market sentiment and crowded trading [2] - Dollar and U.S. Treasury Yield Movements: A slight increase in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, alongside a sell-off in U.S. debt, reflects an enhanced market risk appetite, which has not provided effective support for gold prices despite a minor decline in the dollar index [2] Future Market Outlook - Short-term Predictions: Some institutions have begun to lower their gold price forecasts, with expectations that prices may drop to $3,500 per ounce by the end of next year, while others predict a decline to $3,800 in the next three months [3] - Long-term Support Factors: The trends of "de-dollarization" and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to provide underlying support for precious metals. The interplay between Federal Reserve policy expectations and market sentiment will be crucial for price volatility [3] - Historical Context: Historical trends indicate that expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks leading to dollar weakness, and persistent government deficits are factors that could support a long-term increase in gold demand as an alternative asset [3] Investment Strategy - Market Positioning: Investors are advised to view the current price correction as a potential opportunity for positioning, with a focus on monitoring Federal Reserve signals, geopolitical developments, and alternative economic indicators [4] - Cautious Approach: A cautious bullish strategy is recommended, emphasizing strict position management to navigate volatility risks amid information scarcity [4]