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中炬高新(600872)25Q3点评:经营持续调整盈利能力承压

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating operational challenges and a need for strategic adjustments [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.156 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.01%, and a net profit of 380 million, down 34.07% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 1.025 billion, a decline of 22.8%, with a net profit of 123 million, down 45.7% [1]. - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 513 million, 638 million, and 724 million, reflecting year-on-year changes of -42.6%, 24.5%, and 13.5% respectively [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The seasoning business reported revenue of 3.107 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 18.4%, with a net profit of 367 million, down 34.13% [2]. - In Q3 2025, the seasoning business generated revenue of 1.009 billion, a decline of 19.37%, and a net profit of 120 million, down 41.93% [2]. - Revenue breakdown for Q3 includes soy sauce at 599 million, chicken essence at 137 million, cooking oil at 89 million, and others at 134 million, with respective year-on-year declines [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 39.7%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs [3]. - The selling and administrative expense ratios were approximately 14% and 7.69%, respectively, both showing increases compared to the previous year [3]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 11.81%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased sales expenses from channel adjustments and intensified competition [3]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 28x, 22x, and 20x for 2025-2027, which is slightly below the average PE of 29.2x for comparable companies [1]. - The investment rating has been adjusted to "Accumulate" due to the anticipated recovery in channel performance and strategic adjustments [1].