STL(SZ:002648) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-28 06:37Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 34.771 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.755 billion yuan, up 1.69% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 11.311 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 38.21% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 20.71%, a decline of 1.39 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to maintenance in the ethane phase II and a downturn in acrylic acid market conditions [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s Q3 2025 revenue was 11.311 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.15% decline year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.011 billion yuan, down 38.21% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.342 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.63% year-on-year, but slightly exceeded expectations due to fair value changes from rising silver catalyst prices [1] Cost and Margin Insights - The average price of ethane in the U.S. for Q3 was $172 per ton, a decrease of $7 per ton from the previous quarter, while the procurement cost was estimated at $174 per ton, down $27 per ton [2] - The ethylene price increased by $29 per ton in Q3, leading to an expanded ethane-to-ethylene price spread, which increased by $38 per ton [2] Product Performance and Market Conditions - The profitability of the company's acrylic acid products declined due to increased supply and decreased demand in Q3, with price spreads for propane to propylene and acrylic acid showing mixed results [3] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in the C3 sector's profitability due to reduced new capacity in propylene and supportive policies [3] Future Growth and Project Developments - The company expects to gradually realize production capacity for various new materials starting in Q4 2025, which will enhance performance [4] - The α-olefin comprehensive utilization high-end new materials industrial park project is crucial for future growth, with phase three expected to be operational by the end of 2026 [4] - Recent discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade may lead to a gradual easing of tensions, potentially benefiting the company's valuation [4] Investment Outlook - Due to product market downturns and delays in new material projects, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down to 5.4 billion, 7.1 billion, and 8.9 billion yuan respectively [4] - The corresponding PE valuations are adjusted to 11X, 9X, and 7X, while maintaining a "buy" rating [4]