2020-2025年1-9月中国初级形态的塑料产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市企业：恒逸石化（000703）,荣盛石化（002493）,上海石化（600688）,中国石化（600028）,中国石 油（601857）,华锦股份（000059）,桐昆股份（601233）,恒力石化（600346）,卫星化学（002648）,ST 鸿达（002002） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国塑料制品行业市场现状分析及未来前景规划报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年9月中国初级形态的塑料产量为1267万吨，同比增长10.4%；2025年1- 9月中国初级形态的塑料累计产量为10970.3万吨，累计增长11.6%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

2025 年 12 月 01 日 基础化工 东升西落，全球化工竞争格局的重塑 引言： 近年来，欧洲日韩化工企业产能退出的新闻屡见不鲜，其中欧盟化工产能 利用率已由 2025Q2 的 75.6%下降至 2025Q3 的 74.6%，远低于长期平均水平 81.3%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，中国企业正在凭借显著的成本优势加速抢 占市场份额，根据百川盈孚，在我们重点监测的 86 类主要化工产品中，有 60%的产品 2025 年 1-8 月月均出口量处于近六年 80%以上分位水平，其中 40%的产品处于近六年 100%分位水平上，全球化工格局正在悄然重塑。 欧洲：能源成本高企与环保压力提升的双重困境。 2022 年俄乌冲突大幅拉升天然气价格，近两年虽有所回落，但整体仍显著 高于冲突前水平（2025 年 1-7 月约为美国的 3 倍），同时欧洲电价也在上 涨，2025H1 欧盟批发电价同比上涨 30%至 90 美元/兆瓦时，预计全年平均 电价为美国的 2 倍/中国的 1.5 倍，对化工等能源密集型行业产生直接冲 击。另一方面，严格环保法规下高昂的合规成本进一步加剧企业负担，在 全球化工品需求整体疲软的背景下，欧洲化工企业的 ...

有酒有化 2025 年 12 月 01 日 长司/习生 相关研究 若研究招 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 Extere 修复. 石油化工行业周报(2025/11/24—2025/11/30) 本期投资提示: 风险提示：地缘政治影响；石油及化工品价格波动；经济下行风险。 IEV 作用等等 ")()" IP 2025 TE 力际成本靠拢 们走低可 O LD 行业点评 1. 本周观点及推荐 1.1 本周思考：天然气需求有望修复，气价短多长空 2025 年天然气需求显著放缓, 2026 年有望修复。根据 IEA, 2025 年前三季度全球天 然气需求增速仅达到 0.5% (约 1 ...

行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 空 - ⚫ 天然气需求有望修复，气价短多长空。根据 IEA，2025 年前三季度全球天然气需求增速 仅达到 0.5%（约 100 亿立方米），IEA 预计 2025 年全球天然气需求增速低于 1%。展望 2026 年，天然气需求增速有望修复至 2%，其中亚太需求增速有望达到 5%，增量占全球 一半左右。与过去相比，2025-2026 年采暖季全球天然气库存水平偏低，虽然 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a shift in supply chain dynamics due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in semiconductor materials, leading to accelerated domestic replacements [5][6] - The chromium salt industry is experiencing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with significant price increases noted [8][9] - The report highlights a potential upturn in the chemical industry as supply-side constraints and rising demand could enhance profitability and dividend yields for leading companies [6][10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a 24.0% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 16.9% [3] Key Opportunities - Focus on low-cost expansion opportunities in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as sectors like tire manufacturing and pesticide formulations [6][9] - Emphasis on sectors with improving market conditions, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and polyester filament [9][10] Price Trends - Recent price increases for key products include chromium oxide green at 35,500 CNY/ton and metallic chromium at 84,000 CNY/ton, both up by 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous week [8][16] - The report notes a tightening supply for isooctanol, with prices rising due to increased demand and production disruptions [13] Company Focus - The report identifies several key companies for investment, including Dongfang Shenghong, Hubei Yihua, and Wanhua Chemical, with positive earnings forecasts and attractive price-to-earnings ratios [28]

Group 1: Financial Performance - 三环集团2025年归母净利润预计为2782百万，增速为27%[1] - 沪电股份2025年归母净利润预计为4042百万，增速为56%[1] - 明阳电气2025年归母净利润预计为789百万，增速为19%[1] Group 2: Revenue Growth - 三环集团2025年营业收入预计为9207百万，增速为25%[1] - 沪电股份2025年营业收入预计为18654百万，增速为40%[1] - 明阳电气2025年营业收入预计为7886百万，增速为22%[1] Group 3: Market Opportunities - AI服务器推动MLCC行业量价齐升，预计整机用量较传统架构提高300%[1] - SOFC技术迭代升级，度电成本已与燃气轮机接近平价，带来放量机会[1] - 牧原股份生猪屠宰量同比增长140%，Q3屠宰肉食业务实现单季度盈利[1]

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical emphasizes that stock price fluctuations are influenced by various factors and reaffirms its commitment to green and low-carbon development while focusing on creating a competitive chemical new materials industry chain [2] Group 1 - The company is dedicated to using light hydrocarbons as raw materials to build a competitive chemical new materials industry chain [2] - Continuous efforts are made to enhance the supply chain by supplementing, extending, and strengthening it [2] - Increased investment in research and development is aimed at improving core competitiveness and generating good returns for investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical stated that stock price fluctuations are influenced by various factors including macroeconomic conditions, industry policies, and market sentiment [2] Company Focus - The company continues to focus on its operations and strives to create good returns for investors [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift is anticipated to enhance cash flow and dividend yields for companies in the sector, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones [7][27] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitutes for Japanese semiconductor materials due to rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which could accelerate the domestic market's growth in this area [6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The chemical industry has shown a relative performance increase of 16.1% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 11.6% [4] Key Price Movements - DMC (Dimethyl Carbonate) prices rose to 4400 CNY/ton, up 14.29% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from the electrolyte sector [14] - Lithium battery electrolyte prices increased to 27000 CNY/ton, up 8.00% week-on-week, although profit margins for manufacturers are under pressure due to rising raw material costs [14] - Diammonium phosphate prices in East China reached 3850 CNY/ton, up 5.48% week-on-week, amid rising production costs [14] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four key opportunities in the chemical sector: 1. Low-cost expansion, focusing on companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9] 2. Improved industry conditions, particularly in chromium salts and phosphate rock [10] 3. New materials with high growth potential, such as electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [11] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Chemical [11] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with many rated as "Buy" [28]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the petrochemical sector, highlighting specific companies for investment opportunities [10]. Core Insights - The IEA projects that under the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), global oil demand will steadily increase, reaching 105 million barrels per day by 2035 and 113 million barrels per day by 2050, with an average annual growth of approximately 500,000 barrels per day [3][4]. - In the Established Policies Scenario (STEPS), oil demand is expected to peak around 2030, with a decline anticipated thereafter, primarily driven by the rapid growth of electric vehicles in China [6][10]. - Emerging markets, particularly India, Southeast Asia, and Africa, are expected to account for nearly all oil demand growth, while developed economies will see a decline in consumption [4][6]. Summary by Sections Oil Demand Projections - Under CPS, oil demand is projected to rise to 105 million barrels per day by 2035, with significant contributions from petrochemical, aviation, and industrial sectors [3][4]. - In STEPS, oil demand is expected to peak around 2030, with a subsequent decline influenced by the rise of electric vehicles, particularly in China [6]. Regional Demand Insights - India is projected to lead global oil demand growth, increasing from 5.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 8 million barrels per day by 2035 [4]. - Africa's oil demand is expected to grow by one-third to approximately 6 million barrels per day by 2035, driven by road transport needs [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [10]. - It also suggests focusing on major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [10]. Price Trends and Market Conditions - As of November 21, Brent crude oil prices were reported at $62.56 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.84% from the previous week [15]. - The report notes that the overall oil price is expected to maintain a neutral level through 2026, with limited downside potential [10].