Group 1 - Recent short-term setbacks in the gold market were observed, with spot gold prices dropping from approximately $4342 to a low of $4086, marking a daily decline of over 6%, before closing at $4128.27 per ounce [1] - Despite the recent drop, market buying remains strong, indicating that the decline was likely a result of profit-taking rather than a shift in the overall upward trend of gold [1] Group 2 - Global gold demand saw a year-on-year increase of 3% in Q2 2025, reaching 1249 tons, with a significant value increase of 45%, amounting to approximately $132 billion [3] - The popularity of gold ETFs is rising, with a record net inflow of funds in September, totaling $26 billion for the third quarter, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion by the end of September [3] - The total market capitalization of gold has surpassed $30 trillion, leading the global asset market [4] Group 3 - The current gold bull market is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and rising risk aversion, with a fundamental shift towards diversification of global reserve assets away from the dollar [5] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement at least one significant rate cut by the end of the year, with some anticipating a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [5] - Since April, a series of tariff policies have challenged the dollar's dominance, leading to a global trend of "de-dollarization" and diversification of settlement currencies [5] Group 4 - Recent data shows that the proportion of gold reserves in global central bank foreign exchange and gold reserves has increased from 24% at the end of June to 30%, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40%, providing long-term support for gold prices [6] Group 5 - Technically, gold's daily moving averages remain in a bullish divergence, with previous large declines not breaking short-term support levels, suggesting potential upward movement if prices surpass $4200, aiming for a breakout above $4380 [7]
【百利好黄金专题】上涨逻辑清晰 黄金上不言顶
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-28 06:38