Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas believes that Tesla has effectively solved autonomous driving, allowing for the potential removal of safety drivers in major metropolitan areas [2]. Group 1: Autonomous Driving Developments - Tesla's autonomous driving capabilities are deemed sufficient to "pull the safety driver at scale in major metros," with the only barrier being the company's own caution [2]. - Jonas indicated that there is no additional regulatory approval needed to remove drivers in Texas, projecting that Tesla's global active vehicle count will reach 8 million by the end of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Financial Projections - A 12% penetration rate for Full Self-Driving (FSD) at a subscription price of $99 per month could yield approximately $300 million in quarterly revenue, translating to an annualized revenue of $1.2 billion [3]. Group 3: Recent Company Statements - Following Tesla's third-quarter earnings call, Elon Musk revised his earlier goal of deploying Robotaxis to over half the U.S. population, now stating that the service will expand to up to 10 major cities [4]. - Tesla's FSD is currently under investigation by the NHTSA due to reports of traffic violations and accidents involving vehicles using FSD or Autopilot [5]. Group 4: Market Position and Competition - Gary Black from Future Fund LLC noted that Tesla's sales could significantly increase if the company successfully resolves its autonomous driving challenges, coinciding with the Model Y becoming the best-selling car in Europe in September [6]. - Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities reiterated a bullish outlook on Tesla, identifying the Robotaxi service as a major competitive threat to Uber Technologies Inc. [6]. Group 5: Performance Metrics - Tesla is performing well in Momentum and Quality metrics, showing satisfactory Growth but poor Value, with a favorable price trend across short, medium, and long-term periods [7].
Tesla Bull Adam Jonas Says Elon Musk's EV Giant Has 'Solved' Autonomous Driving, Predicts $1.2 Billion Annual FSD Revenue - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)