美联储降息预期未能提振避险买盘

Core Viewpoint - The current dynamics in the gold market are characterized by a tug-of-war between "policy easing expectations supporting gold prices" and "risk appetite diminishing safe-haven demand" [5] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Gold prices have fallen from the $4000 psychological level to a three-week low due to rising risk appetite stemming from improved global trade relations [1] - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with investors inclined to take profits above the $4000 mark [3] - Short-term technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with gold prices having broken below the $4000 level and showing signs of increasing short positions [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a focal point for the market, with investors fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut in October and another potential cut in December [1][3] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a year-on-year increase of 3%, indicating that inflation, while slowing, remains above target, providing room for "moderate easing" [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Price Levels - If gold prices continue to face pressure and break below the $3950 support level, further selling pressure may target $3900, which corresponds to a 50% retracement of the price increase from July to October [3] - Conversely, if gold prices rebound and break above the $4020 resistance level, they may face strong resistance in the $4050-$4060 range, with potential targets of $4110 and $4155-$4160 if stability is achieved above this level [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions have briefly elevated risk sentiment, particularly following U.S. President Trump's comments on nuclear submarine deployments in response to Russia's new missile tests, providing limited support for gold prices [3]