日元跌跌不休，美财长再度敲打日本央行，“要求”尽快加息

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged Japan to adopt a "robust monetary policy" in light of Japan's slow pace of interest rate hikes, which has implications for currency stability and inflation expectations [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. and Japan Monetary Policy - Yellen emphasized the importance of formulating and communicating a robust monetary policy to stabilize inflation expectations and prevent excessive currency fluctuations [3]. - The meeting between Yellen and Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki did not directly address Japan's monetary policy, indicating a nuanced diplomatic approach [4]. - Japan's central bank has raised interest rates twice since January but maintains borrowing costs at 0.5%, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary tightening [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Critics argue that the slow pace of interest rate hikes has led to a weaker yen, increasing import costs and overall inflation, which has become a political challenge for Japan [6]. - Japan's core inflation rate has exceeded the central bank's 2% target for over three years, raising concerns among policymakers about potential second-round price effects [7]. - The Japanese government appears optimistic about the benefits of a weaker yen, complicating the monetary policy landscape [7]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - Analysts suggest that Washington may be pursuing a weaker dollar policy to boost U.S. exports, thereby pressuring Japan to allow the yen to appreciate against the dollar [8]. - Market consensus indicates that the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike may occur in December 2023 or January 2024, with a gradual approach to increasing rates [8]. - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that as Japan normalizes its monetary policy, the yen could appreciate to around 100 against the dollar over the next decade, reversing a long-term depreciation trend [8][9].