供应持续宽松 乙二醇反弹空间受限

Group 1 - Ethylene glycol prices have been under pressure due to multiple negative factors including a slowdown in coal price increases, a significant drop in crude oil prices, and insufficient downstream demand, leading to a decline in prices approaching the low points of the first half of the year [1] - Since late October, there has been a marginal improvement in terminal orders, which has driven polyester destocking, alongside a rebound in crude oil and coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out of ethylene glycol prices [1][4] - The new expansion cycle for ethylene glycol is beginning, which is expected to increase supply pressure and may limit the rebound potential of prices [5] Group 2 - The production processes for ethylene glycol are primarily based on petroleum and coal, which together account for over 80% of domestic production capacity, making the price trends of crude oil and coal significantly impactful on ethylene glycol prices [2] - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased sanctions against Russia have led to a strong rebound in international oil prices, with significant implications for the global oil supply [2] - Coal prices have also strengthened due to production limitations in major coal-producing regions and increased demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, which has supported coal price increases [3] Group 3 - Since mid-October, the rebound in energy prices has boosted market confidence, leading to an increase in weaving enterprises' new order indices and overall operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces [4] - The average operating rate for polyester is expected to remain at 91.5% in October and increase to 90.5% in November, which is significantly better than previous market expectations [4] - The ethylene glycol market is facing long-term supply pressure due to new production capacities coming online, with an estimated 1 million tons of new capacity expected to be added in the next three years [5][6] Group 4 - Ethylene glycol production profits are currently at a relatively high level due to lower raw material costs and improvements in production efficiency, which have led to increased production rates [6] - Domestic coal-based ethylene glycol operating rates have risen significantly, indicating a recovery in production activity [6] - The import supply of ethylene glycol remains ample, with expectations of high import volumes in the fourth quarter, contributing to a continued loose supply environment [7]