香港第一金：跌破4000美元后，黄金将何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - Recent gold prices have declined from a historical high of $4,380 per ounce, falling below the psychological level of $4,000 due to profit-taking, easing US-China trade tensions, and a reduction in geopolitical risks [2] Resistance Levels - Immediate resistance is identified in the range of $4,040 to $4,050, with a significant short-term boundary at this level [2] - A stronger resistance area is noted between $4,070 and $4,100, which will be critical if prices break above $4,050 [3] Support Levels - Key support is found between $3,900 and $3,910, where multiple pullback lows have occurred since October; a break below this level could lead to further downside [4] - Another support target is identified between $3,800 and $3,850, which is also a zone for medium to long-term investment considerations [5] Trading Strategies - Short-term traders are advised to focus on short positions, particularly if gold rebounds to the $4,040 to $4,050 range, with a stop-loss above $4,060 and targets at $3,980 and $3,940 [6] - Medium to long-term investors should view the current adjustment as a buying opportunity, particularly monitoring the $3,900 support level, with an ideal buying range between $3,800 and $3,900 [6] Important News Events - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision on October 29 is expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment and gold prices, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut; however, the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell's comments during the press conference [7] - Progress in US-China trade negotiations, with a "substantial framework agreement" reached, could boost risk appetite and negatively impact gold prices if further positive news emerges [8] Geopolitical and Economic Context - The US government shutdown has lasted four weeks, and its resolution could lead to significant market volatility due to the release of various economic data [9] - Easing geopolitical tensions, such as Israel lifting emergency status and Ukraine's plans for a ceasefire, have contributed to the recent pullback in gold prices [9] - Despite short-term pressures from technical adjustments and improved risk appetite, the underlying bullish factors for gold, such as global central bank purchases and high US debt levels, remain intact [9]