Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with broad support anticipated within the committee, aligning with market pricing trends and continuing the rate cut momentum from September [1] - Forward guidance may present more complex signals, potentially leaning hawkish, with close attention to the mention of "data dependence" and the framework of risk balance in the Chairman's remarks as key indicators [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown complicates the market landscape, particularly due to the lack of reliable labor market data, although tax data remains a reference point despite its clarity issues [1] Group 2 - Inflation remains persistently high around 3%, deviating from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, posing policy challenges, especially as the Fed has abandoned the average inflation targeting framework [2] - The focus on labor market conditions is deemed reasonable given the rising unemployment claims and increasing unemployment rate, with high inflation expectations likely to resurface in the market [2] - The current U.S. interest rates and stock market pricing appear to reflect an ideal scenario, with expectations for continued stock market growth but potential volatility before year-end [2]
思博瑞投资：料本周美联储将减息25个基点 美股或持续走高
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-28 08:33