光威复材(300699)：军民业务双轮驱动下前景可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in Q3, with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit year-over-year, leading to a downward adjustment in future earnings expectations while maintaining a positive long-term outlook due to strategic developments in military and civilian applications [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 785 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 5.24% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 23.58% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 145 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 41.05% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 26.88% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 1.986 billion yuan, up 4.40% year-over-year, while net profit was 415 million yuan, down 32.55% year-over-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Carbon fiber, carbon beam, and prepreg materials generated revenues of 1 billion, 650 million, and 180 million yuan respectively, with year-over-year changes of -13%, +59%, and -1.9% [2] - The carbon beam segment showed significant improvement due to growth in existing customer business and new customer development, while the carbon fiber segment faced slight revenue decline due to equipment delivery schedules [2] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 41%, down 5.6 percentage points year-over-year, but Q3 gross margin improved to 39%, up 1 percentage point quarter-over-quarter [2] Strategic Developments - The company is actively expanding its military and civilian business, with a significant contract signed in December 2024 and a 658 million yuan procurement contract for carbon fiber in June 2025 [2] - New applications in civilian products are being explored, including PEEK prepreg materials and support for low-altitude equipment manufacturers [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Future net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 600 million, 890 million, and 1.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year change of -18%, +47%, and +18% respectively [3] - The target price has been adjusted to 32.10 yuan, based on a 30x PE ratio for 2026, considering short-term profitability pressures [3]