| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688281 | 华秦科技 | 104.21 | 7.81% | 4.87万 | 5.02亿 | | 603261 | *ST立航 | 29.40 | 5.00% | 1.14万 | 3304.67万 | | 600391 | 航发科技 | 48.51 | 4.95% | 61.17万 | 29.67 亿 | | 688563 | 航材股份 | 65.50 | 4.58% | 9.70万 | 6.28亿 | | 300395 | 菲利华 | 94.55 | 3.67% | 21.25万 | 19.81亿 | | 600893 | 航发动力 | 46.73 | 2.86% | 90.54万 | 41.96亿 | | 688239 | 航宇科技 | 66.18 | 2.84% | 5.93万 | 3.89亿 | | 300900 | 广联航空 | 33.91 | 2.14% | 29.21万 | 10.00亿 | | 300699 | 光威复材 | 4 ...

开源证券认为，2026年，国内商业航天有望迎来"政策+技术+资本"三重共振，值得高度期待。火箭产 业链：受益标的航天动力、西部材料（002149）、航天工程（603698）、飞沃科技（301232）、天力复 合、航天机电（600151）、超捷股份、斯瑞新材、高华科技、银邦股份（300337）、航天发展 （000547）等。卫星产业链及太空算力：推荐中科星图、航天宏图、普天科技（002544）、亚信安全、 永信至诚等，受益标的星图测控、顺灏股份（002565）、旭升集团（603305）、佳缘科技（301117）、 中国卫星、上海港湾（605598）、臻镭科技、盛邦安全、霍莱沃、航天环宇、天银机电（300342）、上 海瀚讯、乾照光电（300102）。 央视新闻消息，2025年，我国商业航天保持快速发展。全年完成发射50次，占比我国全年宇航发射总数 54%。其中，商业运载火箭发射25次；海南商业航天发射场投入使用并实施9次发射，建成以来累计完 成10次发射；其他商业卫星发射16次。全年入轨商业卫星311颗，占比我国全年入轨卫星总数84%。可 重复使用运载火箭技术加速突破，朱雀三号重复使用运载火箭完成首飞，实现二子 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the commercial aerospace industry [1] Core Insights - The aerospace sector is transitioning from being viewed as a "cost center" driven by national will to a "growth engine" driven by commercial demand, with significant investments and strategic planning from both the US and China [6][9] - The global aerospace economy is projected to reach $613 billion in 2024, with commercial aerospace contributing 78%, and is expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2032 [6][9] - The value chain of commercial aerospace is divided into five core levels: "space, ground, terminal, rocket, and application," each presenting unique market opportunities and technical challenges from 2026 to 2030 [10][29] Summary by Sections 1. Space: Satellite Manufacturing - The satellite manufacturing market in China is expected to grow from approximately 7.1 billion yuan in 2025 to about 39.4 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a shift from sporadic research models to continuous, batch engineering deliveries [16][18] 2. Ground: Ground Systems - The ground systems market is projected to increase from around 1.2 billion yuan in 2025 to approximately 39.1 billion yuan by 2030, evolving from a supporting role to a core infrastructure essential for stable satellite constellation operations [21][22] 3. Terminal: Key Variable for Commercial Aerospace - The terminal market is anticipated to grow from 500 million yuan in 2025 to about 141.9 billion yuan by 2030, driven by multiple vertical industries and potential consumer scenarios [23][24] 4. Rocket: Core Constraint - The cost of rocket launches is a critical constraint, with reusable technology expected to reduce costs by 80%-90% compared to traditional expendable rockets. The market for rocket launch services is projected to grow from approximately 10.7 billion yuan in 2025 to about 34.3 billion yuan by 2030 [25][26] 5. Application: Final Value Realization - The application market is expected to expand from 200 million yuan in 2025 to 525 billion yuan by 2030, with the revenue share from applications projected to rise from single digits to over 67% by around 2030 [27][28] 6. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in commercial aerospace can be categorized into three main tracks: 1. Launch and manufacturing segments, which are expected to benefit directly from increased orders and visibility 2. Core components and systems, characterized by high technical barriers and critical for long-term competitiveness 3. Downstream applications and operational services, which, while currently limited in scale, hold the greatest long-term potential for value realization [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - Guangwei Composite Materials Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit year-over-year [2][3]. Stock Performance - As of January 21, Guangwei's stock price increased by 2.02% to 40.42 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 5.31 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 33.603 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 2.43%, with a 0.98% decline over the last five trading days, a 32.79% increase over the last 20 days, and a 39.38% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guangwei reported a revenue of 1.986 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.40%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.55% to 415 million CNY [2]. Shareholder Information - As of January 20, the number of shareholders decreased by 8.07% to 79,500, while the average number of tradable shares per person increased by 8.78% to 10,328 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.261 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.188 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, notable institutional shareholders include E Fund's ChiNext ETF, which holds 11.316 million shares, and Penghua's CSI Sub-Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF, which is a new shareholder with 8.7606 million shares [3]. - Other significant shareholders include Southern CSI 500 ETF and Guotai Junan's National Defense ETF, with varying changes in their holdings compared to the previous period [3].

火箭发射节奏持续加快，商业航天产业稳步提速 [Table_Industry] 军工 长十二火箭发射周期再缩短事件点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周明頔(分析师) | 010-83939792 | zhoumingdi@gtht.com | S0880525080003 | | 杨天昊(分析师) | 010-83939791 | yangtianhao@gtht.com | S0880523080010 | 本报告导读： 长十二火箭发射周期再缩短，我国商业航天发射节奏有望持续加速。我们认为，展 望 2026 年，中国商业航天有望迎来高速发展，商业航天有望成为十五五军工行业核 心投资方向之一。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 军工《两航天央企锚定"十五五"航天强国目 标，俄称打击乌军工设施》2026.01.19 军工《中国航天 2025 发射次数创新高，美军费或 将提至 1.5 万亿美元》2026.01.11 军工《美国"闪击"委内瑞拉，俄宣布 2030 年前 研制出核动力航天发动机原型 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Guangwei Composite Materials Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.01% and a total market capitalization of 33.196 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance in the market [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guangwei Composite achieved a revenue of 1.986 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.40%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.55% to 415 million yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed a total of 2.261 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.188 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of January 9, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 12.87% to 86,500, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 11.40% to 9,494 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable ETFs, with E Fund's ChiNext ETF holding 11.316 million shares, a decrease of 1.9031 million shares from the previous period, while Penghua's CSI Sub-Industry Chemical ETF is a new entrant with 8.7606 million shares [3].

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace industry is entering a period of explosive growth, driven by significant advancements in low Earth orbit satellite constellations and launch capabilities [1][2] - China plans to launch 12,992 commercial satellites to create a global internet satellite constellation, with ongoing development of high-capacity rockets and completion of launch facilities in Hainan [2][4] - By 2027, the commercial aerospace industry is expected to achieve high-quality development, with enhanced innovation and resource utilization, as outlined in the National Space Administration's action plan [4] Group 2: Demand for Commercial Satellites and Rocket Technology - The demand for commercial satellites is increasing, leading to rapid development in the liquid rocket engine sector, which is the mainstream technology for reusable rockets [6][7] - The global electronic specialty gas market is projected to reach $6.023 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.39% from 2022 to 2025, while China's electronic specialty gas market is expected to reach 23 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 10.31% [8][10] Group 3: Advanced Materials in Aerospace - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with high-performance carbon fibers in demand for aerospace applications, although domestic supply capabilities for high-end products remain insufficient [13][14] - Advanced structural ceramics and composites are critical materials in aerospace, with ongoing improvements in technology and innovation needed to close the gap with developed countries [15][16] - The market for quartz glass fibers and composites is expanding, driven by their essential role in aerospace and semiconductor industries [19] Group 4: Key Functional Materials for Commercial Aerospace - PI films are crucial for aerospace applications due to their excellent thermal stability and radiation resistance, with products already supplied to China's rocket technology research institute [21][22] - LCP materials are gaining traction in high-frequency communication and signal transmission industries, with significant production capabilities established by companies like Prilite [23][24] - Specialty plastics and thermal protection materials are essential for ensuring the reliability and performance of aerospace components [25][26]

Summary of Guangwei Composites Conference Call Industry Overview - Guangwei Composites holds a leading position in the commercial aerospace carbon fiber materials sector, particularly with its M series carbon fibers, which are highly rigid and have near-zero thermal expansion coefficients, making them ideal for space environments [2][4][5] - Carbon fiber materials outperform traditional metals in specific strength, modulus, and temperature resistance, allowing for significant weight reduction in critical applications such as satellite frames, solar wing support structures, and phased array antenna components [2][6][7] Key Insights and Arguments - Despite the high unit price of carbon fiber, its lightweight characteristics significantly reduce launch costs for space missions. For instance, the launch cost of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket is approximately 7,000 RMB per kilogram, making weight reduction economically advantageous [2][8][9] - The demand for carbon fiber in low Earth orbit satellite communications is driven by the material's fatigue resistance and stability, which are crucial for high-precision applications like laser communications [2][12] - The Starlink project has seen a notable increase in carbon fiber usage, with the value of carbon fiber per satellite expected to double from 1.5 million RMB for the V2 version to 3 million RMB for the new Starship version [2][13] Financial Performance - Guangwei Composites' carbon fiber business boasts a gross margin of around 60%, contributing approximately 80% to the company's net profit. Although the civil market is competitive and has led to losses, the high-end aerospace demand remains stable with significant growth potential [4][19] - Short-term performance may decline, but long-term projections indicate that net profits could reach around 3 billion RMB by 2030, driven by new aircraft projects and accelerated satellite networking in the aerospace sector [4][23] Challenges and Market Dynamics - The commercial aerospace sector has experienced recent fluctuations, but long-term investment opportunities remain strong, particularly for leading companies with clear competitive advantages [3] - Guangwei Composites faces challenges in achieving stable mass production of carbon fibers, with only a few companies capable of consistent supply, highlighting the technical barriers in the industry [15][19] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in performance starting from 2026-2027, with significant contributions expected from high-end aerospace and satellite projects. The potential for monopolistic supply in the space sector is also noted, as M series products are deemed irreplaceable [21][23] - The aerospace sector's growth is expected to be bolstered by advancements in recoverable technology and the acceleration of satellite networking, which could lead to substantial revenue contributions [22][23]

Group 1 - The stock of Guangwei Composite Materials increased by 4.17% on January 16, with a trading volume of 2.534 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, the company had a financing buy-in amount of 290 million yuan and a net financing buy of 46.65 million yuan, with a total financing and securities balance of 1.195 billion yuan [1] - The financing balance of Guangwei Composite Materials is 1.181 billion yuan, accounting for 3.47% of its market capitalization, which is above the 90th percentile level over the past year [1] Group 2 - As of January 9, the number of shareholders of Guangwei Composite Materials reached 86,500, an increase of 12.87%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 11.40% to 9,494 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 1.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.40%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 415 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.55% [2] Group 3 - Guangwei Composite Materials has distributed a total of 2.261 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.188 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included E Fund's ChiNext ETF as the third-largest shareholder, holding 11.316 million shares, a decrease of 1.9031 million shares from the previous period [3] - New shareholders include Penghua's CSI Sub-Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF, holding 8.7606 million shares, and Guotai Junan's National Security Mixed A, holding 3.694 million shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1] Core Insights - The new materials sector is positioned as a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate into a long-term growth phase. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials leads to one generation of industry," highlighting the foundational nature of the new materials industry as the material basis for other sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials. Samsung Display has officially launched mass production of the 8.6 generation OLED panels, which will be used in new laptops this year [5][20]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Key materials of interest are PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers. The successful suborbital flight test of the Lihong No. 1 vehicle demonstrates advancements in low-cost and flexible launch capabilities [7]. 3. New Energy Sector - Focus on photovoltaic materials, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials. India is projected to become the second-largest solar market globally by 2026, driven by steady installation growth [9]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - Key areas include synthetic biology and scientific services. A team from Tsinghua University in Shenzhen has developed a 3D-printed "mini heart" that mimics the rhythmic beating of a real heart, with future applications in organ printing anticipated [11]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Focus on adsorbent resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched an action plan to promote high-quality development of industrial internet platforms, aiming for over 450 influential platforms by 2028 [13]. 6. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report highlights several companies with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, along with their price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and investment ratings. Notable companies include: - Ruihua Tai (688323.SH): EPS forecast of 0.26 for 2026E, rated as "Increase" [14] - Guangwei Composite (300699.SZ): EPS forecast of 0.97 for 2026E, rated as "Buy" [14] - Zhongfu Shenying (688295.SH): EPS forecast of 0.23 for 2026E, rated as "Buy" [14] - Wanrun Co., Ltd. (002643.SZ): EPS forecast of 0.53 for 2026E, rated as "Buy" [14] - Dinglong Co., Ltd. (300054.SZ): EPS forecast of 0.96 for 2026E, rated as "Buy" [14]