空天系列报告二： 太空碳纤维：黑金时代开启 研究团队： 军工组 吴爽 报告日期：2026年1月24日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 风险提示：技术发展不及预期风险；需求不及预期风险；行业竞争加剧风险。 卫星用碳纤维：受益于整星重量增大，未来单星碳 纤维渗透率有望进一步提升 03 摘要 04 相关公司 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 • 碳纤维被誉为"黑色黄金"，按力学性能分为T系列（侧重拉伸强度，如T300）和M系列（侧重拉伸模量，如M40J）。M系列碳纤维通过 高温石墨化处理（含碳量超99%），模量可达300-600GPa，更适合太空环境。 • 碳纤维在火箭中用于整流罩、级间段、着陆腿等关键部位，能实现20%-50%的减重效果。SpaceX的"猎鹰9号"将其应用于整流罩、级间 段等复合结构。国内案例"微光一号"是全碳纤维火箭，减重30%以上，预计2028年商用。 • 卫星中碳纤维用于散热片、精密结构、太阳能电池板吊杆和天线反射器等，占比约15.1%。目前铝合金仍主导（36.7%），但碳纤维因低 热膨胀系数和减重效果，渗透率有望提升。Starlink卫星迭代显示，单星重量 ...

1月23日，化工板块继续上攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后持续红盘震荡，截至发稿，场内价格涨0.31%。 成份股方面，石化、磷化工、氟化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，东方盛虹、卫星化学、宏达股份大涨超4%，联泓新科、凯赛生物涨超3%，三美 股份、恒逸石化等多股涨超2%。 | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 | | ୧୦સે | 日 周 月 更多 | | | F9 盘前盤后 叠加 九转 | | 画线 丁旦 《 2 > | 4. ETF O | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.988 | | 516020[化工ETF] 11:16 价 | | | 0.978 涨跌 0.003(0.31%) 均价 0.979 成交量 1673 IOPV 0.9772 | | | | 2026/01/23 | (0) C. 7/2 | | +0 | | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 11:16:26 交易中 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Guangwei Composites experienced a stock price increase of 3.63%, closing at 41.69 yuan, with a significant block trade occurring on January 22 [1] - A total of 50,000 shares were traded in the block transaction, amounting to 2.022 million yuan, with a transaction price of 40.44 yuan per share, reflecting a premium rate of -3.00% [1] - The buyer was Huafu Securities, while the seller was Huatai Securities, indicating active trading interest in the stock [1] Group 2 - Over the past three months, Guangwei Composites has recorded 16 block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 57.5337 million yuan [1] - In the last five trading days, the stock has risen by 6.03%, with a net inflow of 187 million yuan from major funds [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688281 | 华秦科技 | 104.21 | 7.81% | 4.87万 | 5.02亿 | | 603261 | *ST立航 | 29.40 | 5.00% | 1.14万 | 3304.67万 | | 600391 | 航发科技 | 48.51 | 4.95% | 61.17万 | 29.67 亿 | | 688563 | 航材股份 | 65.50 | 4.58% | 9.70万 | 6.28亿 | | 300395 | 菲利华 | 94.55 | 3.67% | 21.25万 | 19.81亿 | | 600893 | 航发动力 | 46.73 | 2.86% | 90.54万 | 41.96亿 | | 688239 | 航宇科技 | 66.18 | 2.84% | 5.93万 | 3.89亿 | | 300900 | 广联航空 | 33.91 | 2.14% | 29.21万 | 10.00亿 | | 300699 | 光威复材 | 4 ...

开源证券认为，2026年，国内商业航天有望迎来"政策+技术+资本"三重共振，值得高度期待。火箭产 业链：受益标的航天动力、西部材料（002149）、航天工程（603698）、飞沃科技（301232）、天力复 合、航天机电（600151）、超捷股份、斯瑞新材、高华科技、银邦股份（300337）、航天发展 （000547）等。卫星产业链及太空算力：推荐中科星图、航天宏图、普天科技（002544）、亚信安全、 永信至诚等，受益标的星图测控、顺灏股份（002565）、旭升集团（603305）、佳缘科技（301117）、 中国卫星、上海港湾（605598）、臻镭科技、盛邦安全、霍莱沃、航天环宇、天银机电（300342）、上 海瀚讯、乾照光电（300102）。 央视新闻消息，2025年，我国商业航天保持快速发展。全年完成发射50次，占比我国全年宇航发射总数 54%。其中，商业运载火箭发射25次；海南商业航天发射场投入使用并实施9次发射，建成以来累计完 成10次发射；其他商业卫星发射16次。全年入轨商业卫星311颗，占比我国全年入轨卫星总数84%。可 重复使用运载火箭技术加速突破，朱雀三号重复使用运载火箭完成首飞，实现二子 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the commercial aerospace industry [1] Core Insights - The aerospace sector is transitioning from being viewed as a "cost center" driven by national will to a "growth engine" driven by commercial demand, with significant investments and strategic planning from both the US and China [6][9] - The global aerospace economy is projected to reach $613 billion in 2024, with commercial aerospace contributing 78%, and is expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2032 [6][9] - The value chain of commercial aerospace is divided into five core levels: "space, ground, terminal, rocket, and application," each presenting unique market opportunities and technical challenges from 2026 to 2030 [10][29] Summary by Sections 1. Space: Satellite Manufacturing - The satellite manufacturing market in China is expected to grow from approximately 7.1 billion yuan in 2025 to about 39.4 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a shift from sporadic research models to continuous, batch engineering deliveries [16][18] 2. Ground: Ground Systems - The ground systems market is projected to increase from around 1.2 billion yuan in 2025 to approximately 39.1 billion yuan by 2030, evolving from a supporting role to a core infrastructure essential for stable satellite constellation operations [21][22] 3. Terminal: Key Variable for Commercial Aerospace - The terminal market is anticipated to grow from 500 million yuan in 2025 to about 141.9 billion yuan by 2030, driven by multiple vertical industries and potential consumer scenarios [23][24] 4. Rocket: Core Constraint - The cost of rocket launches is a critical constraint, with reusable technology expected to reduce costs by 80%-90% compared to traditional expendable rockets. The market for rocket launch services is projected to grow from approximately 10.7 billion yuan in 2025 to about 34.3 billion yuan by 2030 [25][26] 5. Application: Final Value Realization - The application market is expected to expand from 200 million yuan in 2025 to 525 billion yuan by 2030, with the revenue share from applications projected to rise from single digits to over 67% by around 2030 [27][28] 6. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in commercial aerospace can be categorized into three main tracks: 1. Launch and manufacturing segments, which are expected to benefit directly from increased orders and visibility 2. Core components and systems, characterized by high technical barriers and critical for long-term competitiveness 3. Downstream applications and operational services, which, while currently limited in scale, hold the greatest long-term potential for value realization [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - Guangwei Composite Materials Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit year-over-year [2][3]. Stock Performance - As of January 21, Guangwei's stock price increased by 2.02% to 40.42 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 5.31 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 33.603 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 2.43%, with a 0.98% decline over the last five trading days, a 32.79% increase over the last 20 days, and a 39.38% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guangwei reported a revenue of 1.986 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.40%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.55% to 415 million CNY [2]. Shareholder Information - As of January 20, the number of shareholders decreased by 8.07% to 79,500, while the average number of tradable shares per person increased by 8.78% to 10,328 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.261 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.188 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, notable institutional shareholders include E Fund's ChiNext ETF, which holds 11.316 million shares, and Penghua's CSI Sub-Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF, which is a new shareholder with 8.7606 million shares [3]. - Other significant shareholders include Southern CSI 500 ETF and Guotai Junan's National Defense ETF, with varying changes in their holdings compared to the previous period [3].

火箭发射节奏持续加快，商业航天产业稳步提速 [Table_Industry] 军工 长十二火箭发射周期再缩短事件点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周明頔(分析师) | 010-83939792 | zhoumingdi@gtht.com | S0880525080003 | | 杨天昊(分析师) | 010-83939791 | yangtianhao@gtht.com | S0880523080010 | 本报告导读： 长十二火箭发射周期再缩短，我国商业航天发射节奏有望持续加速。我们认为，展 望 2026 年，中国商业航天有望迎来高速发展，商业航天有望成为十五五军工行业核 心投资方向之一。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 军工《两航天央企锚定"十五五"航天强国目 标，俄称打击乌军工设施》2026.01.19 军工《中国航天 2025 发射次数创新高，美军费或 将提至 1.5 万亿美元》2026.01.11 军工《美国"闪击"委内瑞拉，俄宣布 2030 年前 研制出核动力航天发动机原型 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Guangwei Composite Materials Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.01% and a total market capitalization of 33.196 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance in the market [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guangwei Composite achieved a revenue of 1.986 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.40%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.55% to 415 million yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed a total of 2.261 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.188 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of January 9, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 12.87% to 86,500, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 11.40% to 9,494 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable ETFs, with E Fund's ChiNext ETF holding 11.316 million shares, a decrease of 1.9031 million shares from the previous period, while Penghua's CSI Sub-Industry Chemical ETF is a new entrant with 8.7606 million shares [3].

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace industry is entering a period of explosive growth, driven by significant advancements in low Earth orbit satellite constellations and launch capabilities [1][2] - China plans to launch 12,992 commercial satellites to create a global internet satellite constellation, with ongoing development of high-capacity rockets and completion of launch facilities in Hainan [2][4] - By 2027, the commercial aerospace industry is expected to achieve high-quality development, with enhanced innovation and resource utilization, as outlined in the National Space Administration's action plan [4] Group 2: Demand for Commercial Satellites and Rocket Technology - The demand for commercial satellites is increasing, leading to rapid development in the liquid rocket engine sector, which is the mainstream technology for reusable rockets [6][7] - The global electronic specialty gas market is projected to reach $6.023 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.39% from 2022 to 2025, while China's electronic specialty gas market is expected to reach 23 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 10.31% [8][10] Group 3: Advanced Materials in Aerospace - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with high-performance carbon fibers in demand for aerospace applications, although domestic supply capabilities for high-end products remain insufficient [13][14] - Advanced structural ceramics and composites are critical materials in aerospace, with ongoing improvements in technology and innovation needed to close the gap with developed countries [15][16] - The market for quartz glass fibers and composites is expanding, driven by their essential role in aerospace and semiconductor industries [19] Group 4: Key Functional Materials for Commercial Aerospace - PI films are crucial for aerospace applications due to their excellent thermal stability and radiation resistance, with products already supplied to China's rocket technology research institute [21][22] - LCP materials are gaining traction in high-frequency communication and signal transmission industries, with significant production capabilities established by companies like Prilite [23][24] - Specialty plastics and thermal protection materials are essential for ensuring the reliability and performance of aerospace components [25][26]