黄金单日暴跌100美元失守4000！

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, dropping below $4000 after reaching a historical high of $4380, reflects a shift in market sentiment due to progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4][5]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of a preliminary agreement to pause higher tariffs between the U.S. and China, the market reacted positively, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6800 points and the Nasdaq rising by 1.86%, while the VIX fear index fell to its lowest in nearly a month [4][5]. - Investors shifted their focus from gold to riskier assets like technology stocks, indicating a significant change in investment strategy [4][5]. Price Dynamics - Gold prices surged from $3800 to $4400 in three weeks, representing a $600 increase, but the recent drop has led to significant losses for those who bought at peak prices [7][8]. - Investors who purchased gold at $4200 are currently facing a 5% loss, while those who bought at the peak of $4380 are down over 9% [8]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - The current market sentiment is characterized by a fear of missing out (FOMO) during the price surge, which may now be shifting to fear of losing out (FOLO) as prices decline [9]. - John Higgins, Chief Economist at Capital Economics, has lowered the gold price target to $3500, suggesting a potential further decline of over 12% from current levels [9][16]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, the long-term value of gold remains tied to deeper economic factors such as the weakening of the U.S. dollar, global order restructuring, and the trend of de-dollarization [15]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against economic instability may diminish as inflation decreases and economic recovery progresses, reducing the urgency for central banks to accumulate gold [11][12]. Investment Strategy - Long-term holders of gold are advised to remain calm amid short-term fluctuations, as the fundamental reasons for holding gold have not changed [15]. - Speculative investors should exercise caution, as predictions indicate that gold prices may continue to decline, potentially leading to further losses [16].