金价下破3900！花旗隔夜紧急预警：短期内或跌至3800

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing easing of trade tensions has led to a decline in safe-haven demand, causing spot gold prices to drop below $3900 per ounce, marking a significant decrease from recent highs [1][2]. Price Movements - Spot gold prices fell below the $4000 mark on Monday and subsequently dropped over $120 in a single day, with a daily decline exceeding 2% [1][2]. - Citigroup has revised its short-term price targets for gold and silver, lowering the gold price expectation from $4000 to $3800 per ounce and silver from $55 to $42 per ounce due to changes in the global market environment [2]. Market Dynamics - Factors contributing to the price adjustments include U.S. trade negotiations with several countries, which have reduced market uncertainty, and expectations of a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown [2][5]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by 51% due to geopolitical uncertainties, interest rate cut expectations, and central bank purchases, although prices have retreated by 10% from the historical high of $4381.21 per ounce reached on October 20 [2]. Long-term Outlook - Citigroup suggests that concerns driving gold prices higher may need to become a baseline scenario to sustain the current bull market until 2026, while the logic of holding gold as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks remains strong in the medium to long term [3]. Market Sentiment - There is significant divergence in market opinions regarding the bottom for gold prices, with some analysts suggesting tactical buying after a pullback [4]. - Central bank demand for gold is reportedly weaker than before, with some traders welcoming deeper price corrections as potential buying opportunities [4]. Federal Reserve Influence - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut expected [4][5]. - The ongoing government shutdown has added uncertainty to the Fed's decision-making process, affecting the release of key economic data [5]. Leadership Changes - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is under scrutiny, with a shortlist of candidates that could influence future monetary policy directions [6].