对话洪灏：沪指突破4000点，牛市还会走多远？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is entering a bull market phase, with significant optimism from international investors, driven by advancements in technology and economic recovery [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Economist Hong Hao has been a prominent advocate for the bull market in China, consistently expressing a bullish outlook even during market corrections [1]. - International investors are beginning to change their narrative regarding Chinese assets, recognizing the significant achievements in technology and industry outside of real estate [2]. - The current market sentiment is overly pessimistic, comparable to the fears seen during the 2008 financial crisis, despite signs of economic improvement [10][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassed 4000 points for the first time since 2015, indicating a strong market performance [7][6]. - Hong Hao believes that the continuous inflow of funds into the market is a key driver of the positive trend in Chinese assets, which often leads market performance ahead of the real economy [8]. - The weakening of the US dollar and the rotation of funds are identified as critical factors contributing to the surge in Chinese assets [9][10]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - Recent policy shifts, particularly the "anti-involution" initiative, are expected to play a significant role in supporting the stock market's upward trajectory [11]. - The governance of upstream enterprises and the regulation of unfair price competition are anticipated to lead to a recovery in commodity prices, which could further bolster market performance [11][12]. - Historical patterns suggest that as commodity prices begin to recover, the market will likely see improved performance in the coming months [12][13]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The cyclical nature of the Chinese economy suggests that a significant bull market occurs approximately every ten years, with the last major bull markets in 2005 and 2015 [13][14]. - Current market conditions do not yet reflect the achievements made in AI and chip technology, indicating that there is still room for growth in the stock market [13][14].