华安基金陈瑜：黄金中长期支撑逻辑未变，配置价值不应被短期波动掩盖

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the gold market are seen as a natural correction following previous excessive gains, with the long-term macroeconomic support for gold remaining intact [2][3]. Market Analysis - The recent significant decline in international gold prices indicates a short-term adjustment phase, with spot gold hitting a low of $4,072.84 per ounce and COMEX gold futures at $4,090.20 per ounce as of October 27 [2]. - The volatility in the gold market was anticipated, as the trading crowding had reached historical highs, prompting a risk warning from the investment team on October 15 [3]. Long-term Support Factors - A profound shift in the global currency landscape is occurring, with the dollar's reserve status weakening and gold's share in global central bank reserves increasing from 10% in 2019 to 23% by Q2 2025, reflecting concerns over the uncertainty of the global monetary system [3][4]. - Central banks globally are continuing to purchase gold, driven primarily by emerging market central banks, with total gold reserves exceeding 36,000 tons as of Q2 2025, showing a net increase of 19 tons in August alone [3]. - Ongoing issues with U.S. credit, including a national debt surpassing $38 trillion, are enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and credit risk, especially in light of declining purchasing power of fiat currencies [4]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to view gold as a long-term asset for macro hedging and value storage rather than a short-term speculative tool, emphasizing its low correlation with traditional assets during systemic risks [5]. - For those who believe in the long-term support for gold, the current market correction presents a potential buying opportunity, while risk-averse investors should exercise caution due to ongoing market volatility [5]. - A systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging, is recommended for smaller investors to mitigate the psychological impact of short-term fluctuations [5]. Strategic Considerations - A common mistake among investors is conflating long-term allocation with short-term trading, which can lead to losses from trying to time the market [6]. - The analysis of gold investment should now incorporate multiple variables beyond just Federal Reserve policies, including geopolitical risks and central bank purchasing trends, to provide a more comprehensive market outlook [6].