华尔街看涨情绪高涨：标普500本周或突破7000大关，年底剑指7500点

Core Viewpoint - The bullish sentiment on Wall Street is rapidly increasing due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, continuous capital inflows, and seasonal trends, with the S&P 500 index closing at a record 6875 points, setting the stage for potential targets of 7000 and 7500-7700 points [1][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has shown strong performance, with a significant rise attributed to positive trade signals, interest rate cut expectations, and robust corporate earnings reports [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that the last week of October is typically favorable for holding stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 index averaging an 8.5% increase and the S&P 500 averaging a 4.2% return from October 20 to year-end since 1985 [4]. Capital Flows - Retail investors, accounting for 22% of U.S. stock trading volume, have been net buyers in 23 out of the past 27 weeks, indicating strong participation [5]. - Corporate stock buybacks are expected to increase in the fourth quarter, providing additional market support as the earnings season concludes [5]. - Hedge funds, which had previously sold off U.S. stocks, have shifted to being net buyers following favorable inflation data that bolstered rate cut expectations [5]. Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index faces limited resistance in its upward movement, with the next resistance level at approximately 7000 points, just 1.8% above the recent closing price [6]. - Analysts predict that if the index successfully breaks through this level, the next targets could be 7500-7700 points, with Barclays forecasting a year-end target of 7250 points [6]. Earnings Reports and Valuation Concerns - The upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple, will serve as a critical test for the market's optimistic sentiment, as these companies represent about a quarter of the S&P 500 index's market capitalization [7]. - There are concerns regarding the high valuations of the S&P 500 index, which has surged 38% since April, raising the risk of a market correction if the earnings reports do not meet expectations [7].