时隔26年扩容，东盟想博更大“筹码”？

Core Viewpoint - East Timor has officially become the 11th member of ASEAN, marking the first expansion of the organization in over two decades, which is seen as a significant opportunity for development in trade and investment for the country [1][2]. Group 1: East Timor's Economic Context - East Timor's GDP is projected to be $1.881 billion in 2024, having contracted for two consecutive years, with a per capita GDP of only $1,343, categorizing it as one of the least developed countries [2]. - Approximately one-third of East Timor's population of around 1.4 million lives on less than $2 a day, highlighting severe poverty issues [2]. - The country heavily relies on oil and gas revenues and foreign aid, with its non-oil economy primarily consisting of traditional services and agriculture [2]. Group 2: Challenges to Membership - East Timor's application for ASEAN membership faced delays due to its economic underdevelopment and the need to meet ASEAN's integration standards, with its per capita GDP significantly below the ASEAN average of about $5,000 [3]. - Historical geopolitical tensions, particularly with Indonesia, and differences in legal frameworks and trade mechanisms also contributed to the prolonged membership process [3][4]. Group 3: Implications of Membership - East Timor's accession to ASEAN is expected to enhance its political status and economic strength, potentially leading to increased financial aid from member countries [6]. - The membership provides East Timor access to a regional market with a total GDP of approximately $3.6 trillion, allowing for tariff benefits on exports such as coffee and fish, and attracting foreign direct investment in infrastructure and tourism [7]. - The integration into ASEAN may also facilitate technology transfer and capacity building through existing ASEAN initiatives, although the realization of these benefits depends on East Timor's reform commitment [7]. Group 4: ASEAN's Perspective - While East Timor's GDP accounts for only 0.08% of ASEAN's total, its strategic location and untapped resources present long-term potential for the region [8]. - The expansion may increase internal disparities within ASEAN, complicating governance and economic integration efforts [8]. - ASEAN may adopt a "multi-speed integration" approach, allowing new members like East Timor a longer adaptation period while accelerating cooperation in other areas [8]. Group 5: China-East Timor Relations - East Timor's membership in ASEAN is viewed positively by China, which has supported the country's development since its independence in 2002, establishing a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2023 [9]. - China has been a significant aid provider in various sectors, including infrastructure and agriculture, enhancing East Timor's development prospects [9]. - The partnership is expected to deepen further with East Timor's integration into ASEAN, potentially leading to expanded cooperation opportunities [9].