绕开中国准备单干！俄罗斯扔7000亿投资稀土，绍伊古能打破垄断？

Core Viewpoint - Rare earths, referred to as "industrial vitamins," have become a key strategic asset in global power dynamics, essential for various industries from electric vehicle batteries to military applications. Russia's recent decision to invest 700 billion rubles (approximately 61.5 billion yuan) to develop a complete rare earth industry chain raises questions about its strategic direction and capabilities, especially given its significant reserves but minimal production output [2][4][6]. Group 1: Russia's Rare Earth Strategy - Russia's Defense Minister, Shoigu, is leading the initiative to establish a complete rare earth industry chain, indicating the strategic importance of this sector to the country [4][6]. - Despite holding the fifth-largest rare earth reserves globally at 28.5 million tons, Russia's production accounts for less than 1% of the global total, highlighting a significant gap between resource availability and technological capability [6][8]. - Previous attempts to collaborate with the U.S. and China for rare earth development have failed, pushing Russia to pursue an independent strategy [8][10]. Group 2: Challenges in Development - The investment of 700 billion rubles is insufficient for establishing a comprehensive industry chain, as the construction of a high-purity rare earth processing plant alone requires hundreds of billions of yuan [6][14]. - Russia faces significant technological barriers, as it lacks the expertise and experience that China has developed over decades in rare earth processing [14][16]. - The absence of a robust downstream market for rare earth products in Russia complicates the situation, as the demand from emerging industries like electric vehicles and solar energy is still limited [16][18]. Group 3: Economic and Market Considerations - The rare earth industry is capital-intensive and has long investment return cycles, which raises concerns about Russia's ability to sustain funding for this sector given its current economic conditions [16][18]. - The strategic decision to pursue self-sufficiency in rare earth production reflects a desire to reduce dependence on external supply chains, but it must be balanced with an understanding of industry dynamics and market needs [18].