ATFX汇评：黄金跌破4000美元，创10月6日以来新低

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continued to decline, reaching a low of $3,886, marking a new low since October 6, indicating a bearish sentiment among mainstream investors towards short-term gold prices [1][5]. Market Overview - The U.S. unemployment rate in October remained stable at 4.35%, showing no significant change from September [3]. - The core CPI year-on-year for September was reported at 3%, slightly lower than the previous and expected values of 3.1%, suggesting stable inflation [3]. - The likelihood of a significant recession in the U.S. economy remains low given the stability in employment and inflation data [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to a range of 3.85% to 4% [5]. - Market expectations for the rate cut are high, with a 99% probability of occurrence, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, potentially causing an unusual rebound in the dollar index [5]. - The dollar index is currently at a relative low not seen in over three years, and it is expected to fluctuate between 95 and 100 as long as U.S. economic data does not show unexpected declines [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices peaked on October 20 and have since experienced significant declines, breaking below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $3,977 [7]. - The next key support level to watch is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $3,721, which has a high probability of being tested in the medium term given the strong downward momentum [7].