龙佰集团(002601)：3Q钛白粉盈利见底 加快推进全球产业布局

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in titanium dioxide profitability and reduced titanium concentrate production caused by mine maintenance [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 19.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.674 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.70 yuan, down 34.7% year-on-year, which was below expectations [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 6.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year and 2.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Gross profit for Q3 2025 was 1.188 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 fell to 19.4%, a decline of 6.4 and 5.1 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively, due to falling titanium dioxide prices and rising sulfuric acid costs [1] Development Trends - The company announced plans to acquire Venator's UK titanium dioxide assets, which includes a 150,000 tons/year chlorination titanium dioxide plant for a transaction price of $69.9 million, aiming to enhance its global industrial layout [2] - The establishment of a subsidiary in Malaysia is also planned, which is expected to further promote international development and increase global market share [2] - New titanium concentrate production capacity is anticipated to drive profit growth, with an expected capacity of 2.48 million tons by 2026 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the decline in titanium dioxide profitability, the company has lowered its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 23% and 15% to 0.91 and 1.50 yuan per share, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21.0 and 12.7 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] - The target price is maintained at 23 yuan, indicating a 20% upside potential, with P/E ratios of 25 and 15 times for 2025 and 2026 [3]