今日关注，美联储决议前瞻：透露进一步宽松信号？缩表命运或揭晓

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its two-day meeting, with significant political pressure from the Trump administration and internal divisions among policymakers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Risks - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rising from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in August, indicating potential inflationary pressures [3][4]. - The job market shows signs of weakness, with an average of only 29,000 new jobs added monthly from June to August, significantly below pre-pandemic levels [4][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the approach to interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution due to inflation risks [4][6]. - Market expectations indicate a 90% probability of consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, with potential for 2-3 additional cuts in the following year [6][8]. - The Fed may signal an end to its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, with discussions around the adequacy of liquidity in the financial system [9][10]. Group 3: Labor Market and Consumer Spending - The labor market's current state is difficult to assess due to the absence of comprehensive employment data, raising concerns about potential consumer spending impacts if government employees face income disruptions [5][6]. - Despite hiring slowdowns, consumer income growth and retail spending remain resilient, although uncertainties from the government shutdown could lead to significant economic impacts [5][6].