短期回调难撼“黄金信仰”! LBMA代表们预言一年内金价冲击5000美元

Core Viewpoint - Despite a significant pullback in gold prices after a recent surge, major investment institutions and retail investors maintain a bullish outlook on gold's long-term prospects, with expectations of prices potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce in the future [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a historic high earlier this month, reaching approximately $4,000, but have since retreated to around $3,900 due to profit-taking strategies by traders [2]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by about 50%, driven by investor demand for hedging against currency devaluation and increasing fiscal pressures in developed countries [2]. - The recent market volatility included a significant one-day drop, with spot gold prices falling by as much as 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [2][4]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Major investment firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan remain optimistic about gold, with JPMorgan predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026 [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs reiterated its long-term bullish stance, maintaining a target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, suggesting potential "upside risks" to this forecast [5]. - Bank of America provided an even more aggressive forecast, suggesting gold prices could reach $6,000 by next spring, highlighting the low allocation of gold in global investment portfolios [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - The Bank of Korea plans to increase its gold reserves for the first time in over a decade, reflecting a trend of central banks actively participating in the gold market [3]. - Central bank demand has been a key driver of gold price increases, with significant purchases from various countries over the past two years [3]. - Analysts noted that while central bank demand remains strong, it may not be as robust as previously observed, indicating a potential for price corrections [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The sentiment among market participants remains broadly bullish, with expectations for silver and other precious metals to also see significant price increases in the coming year [3]. - Historical analysis suggests that after significant declines in gold prices, there is often a rebound, with an average increase of about 1.82% within a month following a drop of 5% or more [4].