德国化工凉了？巨头集体跑路，10万岗位蒸发，中国化工杀出重围

Core Viewpoint - The German chemical industry is facing a critical survival challenge due to rising costs and increased competition, leading to significant job losses and potential economic decline in traditional industrial regions [1][3][10]. Cost Pressures - The reliance on cheap Russian natural gas, which previously accounted for 40% of energy consumption in chemical production, has been disrupted, causing energy costs to triple for some companies [3][5]. - The carbon trading system in the EU adds further financial strain, with companies like INEOS facing carbon offset costs that consume up to 80% of their net profits [5][12]. Job Losses - Major companies are announcing large-scale layoffs, with Evonik cutting 2,000 jobs globally, including 1,500 in Germany, and BASF reducing traditional production capacity by 20% [8][10]. - The German Chemical Association (VCI) reports that approximately 100,000 direct jobs are at risk, with potential knock-on effects leading to over 400,000 job losses in related sectors [9][10]. Policy and Industry Conflict - The conflict between climate policy and industrial survival is intensifying, with calls from opposition parties to relax carbon trading rules to support struggling companies [12][15]. - The North Rhine-Westphalia economy minister insists on maintaining the carbon trading system as essential for industrial modernization, despite the immediate challenges [14][15]. Transition Efforts - Companies are attempting to pivot towards greener alternatives, with Shell focusing on biofuels and BASF investing €5 billion in a green chemical park to reduce carbon emissions by 60% [17][19]. - The EU has approved €5 billion in industrial decarbonization subsidies for Germany, aiming to support the chemical and metallurgy sectors while developing a hydrogen supply network [19]. Competitive Landscape - German chemical firms are under pressure from competitors in Asia and the Middle East, where natural gas costs are significantly lower, allowing for more competitive pricing [5][7]. - Chinese chemical companies have rapidly gained market share, reaching 28% globally in 2023, further squeezing the market for German firms [5][17].