形势变得严峻！刚拿下稀土大单，特朗普又要开“第二枪”，全球收到通告，中国被做局？

Core Points - The recent actions by the Trump administration regarding "critical minerals" indicate a strategic move to reduce U.S. dependence on China for these resources, particularly rare earth elements and tungsten [1][6][9] Group 1: U.S.-Australia Agreement - On October 20, Trump signed a significant agreement with Australian Prime Minister Albanese, committing to invest a total of $8.5 billion in rare earth and critical mineral projects, with each country contributing at least $1 billion over the next six months [1][3] - The agreement includes plans to build a facility in Australia capable of refining 100 tons of gallium annually, which is essential for high-frequency chips and military applications [1][3] Group 2: Challenges in U.S. Mineral Production - Despite the agreement, experts highlight that Australia lacks the necessary refining technology, as 90% of global rare earth refining capacity is still in China, making it difficult for the U.S. to achieve self-sufficiency [3][6] - The U.S. has invested nearly $1 billion to rebuild its rare earth supply chain but still relies on China for refining, indicating a long road ahead to establish a domestic industry [3][6] Group 3: U.S. Actions in Kazakhstan - Following the Australia agreement, the U.S. is reportedly assisting an American company in acquiring a significant tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, which has an estimated reserve of 1.3 million tons and is considered a strategic resource for military applications [4][6] - The U.S. government's direct involvement in negotiations, including potential loans to secure mining rights, marks a departure from typical private sector negotiations and raises concerns about double standards in U.S. trade practices [4][6] Group 4: China's Position - China maintains a dominant position in the global supply chain for rare earths and tungsten, controlling 80% of tungsten production and 90% of rare earth refining capacity, making it difficult for the U.S. to replace its role [6][7] - Recent Chinese regulations on the export of rare earth-related products and technologies aim to safeguard national security, further solidifying China's position in the market [7][9] Group 5: Political Implications - The actions taken by the Trump administration appear to be more about political posturing than addressing the underlying challenges in the mineral supply chain, as the timeline for achieving self-sufficiency is projected to take 5 to 10 years [6][9] - The competitive landscape for critical minerals is not solely about acquiring mining rights but also about the decades of accumulated technology and industrial capabilities, which the U.S. may struggle to match [9]