UPS Saw Its China Trade Plunge 20% — CEO Warns Tariff Fallout Isn't Over Yet

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) has indicated that global trade turbulence continues, particularly due to new tariff rules affecting trade between China and the U.S., leading to a significant decline in trade volume [1][5]. Group 1: Trade Impact - The China-to-U.S. trade lane experienced over a 20% decline in the third quarter, with expectations for continued downturn into the fourth quarter [1]. - The elimination of the de minimis exemption has disrupted shipping networks, causing some mail systems to halt shipments to the U.S. [2]. - Customs delays and increased costs are being felt by small- and medium-sized exporters due to these changes [3]. Group 2: Automation and Adaptation - UPS has increased automation in customs clearance, with daily packages requiring clearance rising from 13,000 in March to 112,000 in the third quarter, with nearly 90% now cleared automatically [3]. - While some small and medium businesses (SMBs) are managing the changes effectively, others are facing significant challenges [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - UPS anticipates that the full impact of the tariffs will be felt in 2026, indicating a long-term adjustment period for trade flows [5]. - The company expects the tariff fallout to reduce fourth-quarter profits by up to $100 million, highlighting the complexity of the situation [5].