中美关税大战升级，最大赢家出人意料，美国难再排除中国

Core Insights - The US-China trade war has lasted seven years, with neither side being completely excluded, indicating a complex interdependence rather than a straightforward victory for either party [1][15][17] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The trade war began in 2018, initiated by the US imposing tariffs citing intellectual property and trade deficits, leading to immediate retaliatory measures from China [1] - From 2019 to 2020, tariffs escalated, and while a phase one agreement was reached, core tax rates remained unchanged, indicating ongoing tensions [3] - The US aimed to remove China from key supply chains to enhance national security and manufacturing, but the economic realities proved more complicated, with businesses and consumers bearing the brunt of increased costs [5][11] Group 2: Economic Impact - The average tariff rate in the US rose to 37.4%, resulting in an annual burden of approximately $2,400 per household, without achieving the expected reduction in inflation or a significant return of manufacturing [5][15] - Despite the trade war, China's imports and exports have shown growth, with a 4% increase in total trade and a 7.1% rise in exports, particularly notable in African markets [7] Group 3: Strategic Responses - China's response has included bolstering domestic demand, advancing technological independence, and moving towards higher-end manufacturing, reflecting a proactive rather than purely defensive strategy [9][11] - The trade conflict has accelerated China's industrial upgrades in sectors like semiconductors and AI, with a shift from import substitution to export competition [11] Group 4: Global Trade Relations - Many countries, while publicly aligning with the US, are pragmatically balancing their trade relations, indicating a complex global landscape rather than a simple alignment against China [13] - The long-term effects of the trade war will likely reshape corporate structures, supply chain strategies, and global trade dynamics, emphasizing the interdependence between the US and China [15][18] Group 5: Future Considerations - The focus will shift from high-intensity confrontations to rule-based negotiations regarding technology standards and financial settlements, which may have a more significant impact than tariffs [18] - Companies are advised to diversify risks and enhance supply chain resilience while navigating the balance between openness and security in policy [18]