Q3 EPS Growth Accelerates Despite Misses; Why This Week Is Important

Market Overview - US stocks experienced mixed results last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rising slightly over 1.6%, while the Dow increased by 2% [2] - Both the DJIA and S&P 500 reached record levels on Friday, influenced by Q3 earnings season, dovish Federal Reserve commentary, and better-than-expected inflation data [2][12] Earnings Season Insights - The second week of Q3 earnings season showed mixed results, with initial strong performances from big banks followed by disappointing reports from regional banks and major tech companies [3] - High-profile disappointments included Tesla, which saw profits drop 37% year-over-year despite beating revenue expectations, leading to a 4% stock drop [4] - IBM reported better-than-expected earnings but showed slowing growth in its core cloud services, facing stiff competition from AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud [4] - Netflix missed earnings estimates due to a tax dispute, despite having a successful film, resulting in a 5% stock decline [4] Positive Earnings Reports - Honeywell exceeded analyst expectations due to strength in its aerospace division, resulting in a 4% stock increase [5] - American Airlines reported better-than-expected results driven by travel demand and provided strong guidance for Q4 and the full year [5] - Intel reported strong earnings driven by AI chip demand, leading to a 3% stock gain for the week [5] - The blended EPS growth rate for the S&P 500 increased to 9.2%, up from 8.5% the previous week, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth [5] Job Market Trends - Initial jobless claims rose to approximately 227,000, indicating an upward trend in unemployment applications [6] - Major corporations announced workforce reductions, including Meta (600 layoffs), Rivian (over 600 layoffs), and Target (1,800 corporate jobs) [6] - GM laid off over 200 employees, while Amazon plans to replace over half a million jobs with robots in the next seven years [6][14] Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming week is expected to be significant for the Q3 earnings season, with major companies like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon reporting [7][8] - The "Magnificent 7" companies are anticipated to have a substantial impact on overall market growth, with expected YoY EPS growth of 14.9% compared to 6.7% for the rest of the S&P 500 [7] Conclusion - Despite mixed corporate earnings signals and layoff news, the market closed at record highs, driven by favorable inflation data [12] - The focus will shift back to corporate fundamentals as the "Magnificent 7" prepare to report, which will be crucial for sustaining market growth [12]