Amid a volatile macro backdrop, gold and bitcoin have each returned almost 30% so far this yearETFs can provide efficient exposure to alternative assets like precious metals and cryptocurrenciesOther metals and tokens have delivered even more impressive returns—and yes, ETFs exist for those, tooBitcoin and gold share the same year-to-date return, both up 28% through July 16. So far, 2025 has been the year of diversification, thanks to hefty gains in international stocks, a positive (though rocky) return i ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector, particularly the Semiconductors Sector ETF (SMH), has shown significant price movements, with potential for both profit-taking and corrections in the near term [5][6]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor companies, including notable names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom, have recently reached new all-time highs, indicating strong momentum in the sector [2]. - SMH rallied above its January 6-month calendar range in June but faced resistance in July, suggesting a critical point for future price movements [7]. - Current momentum in SMH remains strong but has not reached new all-time highs alongside price, indicating a potential divergence [7]. Russell 2000 ETF - The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) attempted to clear the July 6-month calendar range but was unsuccessful, mirroring some characteristics of SMH [9]. - IWM's performance in early July showed improvement, but it has not yet cleared significant resistance levels, which could impact future rallies [12]. - A convincing breakout above the 226-227 range for IWM could signal a strong upward trend, contingent on the retail sector (XRT) also rallying [10].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis focuses on the performance and trading patterns of crude oil futures, particularly the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), highlighting its recent underperformance and potential bullish signals. Group 1: Performance Analysis - The USO has underperformed the benchmark since late June [3] - A recent 15% correction from the peak during the Middle East crisis has occurred, with $64 acting as a significant support level [5] - The ETF is currently trading in the middle of the new July 6-month calendar range, which aligns with the 200-day moving average [3] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The momentum remains in a bullish divergence to price, indicating potential upward movement [3] - The ETF is above the 50-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average around $66.20 [4] - A move above the July calendar range high would be considered very bullish [3] Group 3: Trading Strategy - The safest trade is identified as one that clears the $68 level [5] - Holding above the $64 support level is seen as favorable for future performance [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the increasing energy demands driven by AI and the necessity for utilities to adapt to these changes [1][2] - Blackrock predicts a rise in utility demands and energy requirements for AI in the second half of 2025 [2] - OPEC+ has decided to raise its output target by 548,000 barrels per day, indicating a shift in oil supply dynamics [2] Group 2 - Despite bearish news, the oil market remains resilient, with current prices hovering just under $68, which is seen as a resistance level [3][6] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential drop in oil prices to $60, but the market currently indicates that demand is still outpacing supply [3] - If oil prices hold above $68, there is potential for bullish momentum, possibly leading to prices reaching $85 again [6] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks are resurfacing, particularly with Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, which could impact oil market stability [6] - Analysts often focus on numerical data without considering price charts, which can lead to different interpretations of market trends [7]

Core Insights - The second quarter of 2025 saw 30% of companies tracked by Wall Street Horizon announcing shareholder-payout increases, marking the best Q2 performance since 2021, while only 9% of companies cut their dividends, the lowest rate in three years [1][5]. Dividend Trends - The healthy dividend-hike rate in Q2 indicates strong corporate performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties, suggesting a positive outlook for the remainder of 2025 [2][5]. - Companies are continuing to generate profits, repurchase shares, and increase dividends, which signals a bullish sentiment among corporate leaders [3][5]. Price Adjustments - Investment teams need to adjust stock prices to reflect increased dividend payouts accurately, with North America recording 17,509 price adjustments in the first half of 2025, on track to surpass the previous year's record [4][6]. Company-Specific Developments - Caterpillar announced a 7% dividend increase, raising its quarterly distribution to $1.51, despite facing challenges such as potential higher tariffs [8]. - UnitedHealth Group increased its quarterly dividend by 5.2% to $2.21, providing some relief to shareholders amid significant stock price declines and operational challenges [15]. Market Outlook - The macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain with ongoing geopolitical tensions and domestic economic concerns, yet the high percentage of companies increasing dividends suggests underlying corporate optimism [19].

Group 1: IPO Activity - Voyager Technologies (NASDAQ: VOYG) experienced an 82% increase in stock price on its first trading day, indicating strong investor interest in the space and defense-technology sector [1] - Chime Financial (CHYM) raised $864 million in its IPO, pricing above its initial estimated range and saw a 39% surge on its debut [2] - Other notable IPOs include eToro (ETOR) and Hinge Health (HNGE), which raised $310 million and $864 million respectively, both pricing above anticipated ranges [3] Group 2: M&A Trends - Despite a few successful IPOs, overall M&A activity remains flat year-on-year, continuing a trend from the past three years [4][6] - Smaller buyouts have occurred, such as PepsiCo's acquisition of Poppi for $1.6 billion and Rocket Cos.' purchase of Redfin for $1.75 billion [7] - Notable recent deals include Dick's Sporting Goods acquiring Foot Locker for $2.4 billion and Salesforce's $8 billion purchase of Informatica [9][10] Group 3: Market Conditions - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to tariffs, affecting CEOs' willingness to engage in M&A [6] - There is potential for a resurgence in M&A activity in the second half of 2025, driven by easing trade-war concerns and a more favorable economic outlook [10] - The upcoming shareholder meetings may provide insights into corporate capital plans and potential M&A activity [11][12] Group 4: CEO Confidence - The Conference Board's Measure of CEO Confidence dropped to its lowest level since Q4 2022, indicating a cautious sentiment among corporate leaders [13] - A recovery in CEO confidence could signal a greater appetite for risk and potentially lead to increased M&A activity [13] Group 5: Conclusion - While large-scale M&A has not materialized, there is a steady flow of small to medium-sized transactions, and the IPO market shows signs of revival [14]

Macro Economic Overview - The US unemployment rate remains steady around 4.2%, with average hourly earnings decreasing to 3.8% year-on-year [2] - Recent CPI inflation data from February to April has been largely below estimates, indicating a cooling economic environment [2] - The latest Retail Sales report did not raise recession concerns, and upcoming PCE Price Index data may not fully reflect tariff impacts [3] Shareholder Meetings and Company Updates - Several key shareholder meetings for the Magnificent Seven companies are scheduled, including JPMorgan Chase on May 20 and Amazon on May 21 [6][10] - Amazon's shares rose over 8% following tariff rollbacks, although the company announced a small workforce reduction [10][11] - Meta Platforms is set to hold its AGM on May 28, having reported a 35% profit increase in Q1 and solid guidance for the year [12][13] - Netflix shares have increased by 29% year-to-date, with significant growth in its ad tier user base [14] - Alphabet has faced challenges despite a strong Q1 report, with its stock down over 10% in 2025 [15] Investment Banking and Market Trends - The financial sector is experiencing both challenges and opportunities, highlighted by a successful IPO from eToro and upgrades for KKR and Carlyle [7][8] - NVIDIA has seen a stock increase of over 50% since April, benefiting from recent deals in Saudi Arabia [17][18] - The overall Q1 earnings season has been strong, but the macro outlook remains uncertain, making upcoming shareholder meetings critical for investors [19][20]

Core Insights - The peak earnings season is commencing, with 7,600 companies, or 70% of the equity universe, expected to report in the next three weeks, focusing particularly on major tech firms known as the Magnificent 7 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Tesla's share price has declined this year, attributed to ongoing boycotts and backlash against CEO Elon Musk, leading to a 40% year-over-year decline in earnings and a 9% drop in revenues [2][3] - Alphabet reported strong Q1 results, exceeding Wall Street estimates due to robust performance in search and advertising, with significant investments in AI tools paying off [3] - Intel also beat analyst estimates but provided weak forward guidance, with Q2 revenue expectations of $11.8 billion falling short of the $12.82 billion consensus, and EPS expectations flat compared to a consensus of $0.06 [3][5] Group 2: Market Trends - As of now, 36% of the S&P 500 has reported Q1 results, with a blended EPS growth rate of 10.1%, an increase from the previous week's 7.1% [3] - Only 73% of companies have surpassed EPS expectations this season, which is below the 5-year average of 77% and the 10-year average of 75% [3] Group 3: Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming week will see 180 S&P 500 companies report earnings, including key players from the Magnificent 7 such as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple [4][5] - The peak earnings season is expected to continue until May 16, with over 2,000 reports anticipated each week, and May 8 predicted to be the most active day with 1,156 companies expected to report [8]

Group 1 - Viking Therapeutics is set to focus on key pipeline updates during its first-quarter earnings call, particularly on three clinical candidates: VK2735 for obesity, VK2809 for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and VK0214 for X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD) [1] - VK2735 is highlighted as a significant interest due to the growing trend in obesity treatments and the transformative effects of weight loss in the consumer health space [2] - The company has shown a classic reversal bottom in its stock price, indicating potential positive momentum, and is currently outperforming benchmarks on the Leadership indicator [3] Group 2 - The weekly chart analysis indicates that VKTX is in a distribution phase rather than a bear phase, with the 200-week moving average serving as a strong support area for the stock price [4] - The stock price is currently trading at levels similar to the end of 2023, with a notable peak at $100, suggesting potential for recovery [5] - A weekly close above $24.50 is seen as a positive indicator, with the potential for rewards exceeding risks by 4-5 times [5]

Company Overview - AbbVie Inc is a global biopharmaceutical company specializing in the discovery, development, manufacturing, and marketing of advanced medicines [1] - The company focuses primarily on immunology, oncology, neuroscience, and virology treatments, with a broad portfolio of prescription drugs addressing various medical conditions [1] Key Products - Humira (adalimumab), one of the world's best-selling drugs, is used to treat various autoimmune conditions; however, its patent expired in 2023 [1] - AbbVie is transitioning to a newer drug, Rinvoq, in the immunology space following the expiration of Humira's patent [1] - The company also develops treatments for various cancers and focuses on neurological and psychiatric conditions, with popular products including Botox and Allergan [1] Market Position and Technical Analysis - The stock is currently trading under the 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating a phase of distribution [2] - A support level at $160 is identified as a risk point for the stock [4] - Recent buying activity has been noted since a low in November, suggesting potential interest from investors [3] - A pivotal price point at $172 is highlighted, with a move and hold above this level seen as compelling for initiating a position [7] - Real Motion analysis indicates a mean reversion to the buy side could be occurring, and leadership indicators suggest the stock is on support [5][6]