On June 5, 2025, Circle Internet Group Inc (NASDAQ: CRCL) had its IPO.The stock price opened at $69.00 per share.  Within the next few days, the price rose to $150 and then peaked on June 23rd at $298.99 a share!I have watched a lot of IPOs, and I have yet to trade one until we have history. Sign up for our FREE newsletter and receive our best trading ideas and research Leave this field empty if you're human: Over 3 months in, I can share some chart patterns, plus tell you why I am interested in ...

Market Overview - The tech sector experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 2.5% and the S&P 500 by 1.2% due to profit-taking and high valuations concerns [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks on potential interest rate cuts led to a recovery in major indices, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the week higher, the latter reaching an all-time high [3] Company-Specific Insights - Palantir's stock reached a record high of $190 following strong Q2 earnings, but an overheated P/E ratio of 193 caused investor retreat [2] - Nvidia is expected to report significant year-over-year growth in Q2, with EPS projected to rise by 47% and revenue by 53%, driven by demand for their Blackwell Ultra chip [4] - Concerns regarding Nvidia's revenue from China have emerged, with potential exclusion of direct revenue due to pending license approvals and evolving export controls [5] Retail Sector Performance - TJX Companies reported better-than-expected Q2 results, benefiting from lower tariff exposure and value-seeking consumers [6] - Ross Stores also exceeded EPS expectations and provided positive guidance for Q3 [7] - Specialty and apparel retailers face challenges, with Citi downgrading Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap, and Urban Outfitters due to tariff risks and inventory management issues [9] Upcoming Earnings - A total of 1,383 companies are set to report earnings next week, with 79% of companies in the universe having reported thus far [10] - The next earnings season will begin on October 14, featuring major banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo [10]

Group 1 - The article expresses a bullish sentiment towards Rivian, highlighting its potential for future growth despite price volatility [1][4] - Rivian is positioned to capture market share with the upcoming R2 mid-size SUV, which is expected to expand its total addressable market (TAM) beyond the premium R1 lineup, with a projected price point of approximately $50,000 [4] - Recent trading activity indicates a reversal of the downtrend, with Rivian closing above major moving averages, suggesting a confirmed bullish phase [3][8] Group 2 - The momentum indicators show a slight negative divergence between momentum and price, but Rivian experienced a mean reversion to the buy side following its recent earnings report [10][11] - Rivian plans to introduce hands-free point-to-point driver assistance by late 2026, with the CEO suggesting that autonomy will drive the adoption of electric vehicles [15] - A significant price target for Rivian is set at around $25, contingent on moving above the July calendar range and maintaining higher lows since April [16]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - The S&P 500 Index reported an 81% positive surprise rate with 70% of companies showing positive growth, resulting in an aggregate growth rate of 11.4% for the second quarter [1] - Q1 estimates started at $63, fell to $60, and then rose to $64.50, while Q2 estimates began at $67, dropped to $63, and returned to $67 with actual results [2] - The weak U.S. dollar and continued pricing power due to elevated inflation contributed positively to earnings, with future quarterly estimates showing improvement [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Predictions - Analysts had prematurely trimmed estimates for Q1 and Q2, underestimating corporations' ability to navigate uncertainty and protect profit margins [4] - The impact of tariffs on companies has been less significant than anticipated, with many companies managing to absorb costs and maintain margins [6][7] - A similar trend of falling estimates followed by actual results beating expectations was observed in Canada, with the TSX up 14.4% this year [8] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The TSX is trading at 16.3x consensus earnings for the next 12 months, the highest valuation since early 2021, raising questions about its sustainability given the sluggish housing market and tariff impacts [9] - Gold stocks have significantly contributed to the TSX's gains, with gold miners expected to grow earnings by $7.7 billion over the next year [9][10] - The reliance on gold for future earnings growth may pose risks for the TSX, as cyclical earnings typically carry lower valuation multiples [10][11]

Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Capital Expenditures - Companies building AI infrastructure are experiencing capital expenditures near $400 billion annualized, growing approximately 50% year-over-year, significantly impacting economic activity across sectors [1] - The momentum in AI capital expenditures is expected to continue over the next 12 to 18 months, serving as a powerful force for US GDP [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Market Dynamics - Meta reported strong earnings driven by AI-powered targeting, while Snap struggled despite similar macro conditions, highlighting the importance of scale in AI [2] - Zillow achieved 15% year-over-year growth in a challenging housing market, with management expecting further acceleration in rental growth [5] - Clear Secure is positioned to address challenges in identity verification as AI tools proliferate, with strong revenue growth and expanding membership [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions and Market Positioning - Joby Aviation's acquisition of Blade Air Mobility enhances its position in the eVTOL space, providing strategic advantages in network infrastructure [9][10] - The acquisition allows Joby to control both manufacturing and customer distribution, creating a competitive edge in emerging transportation models [10]

Core Insights - The S&P Energy Sector ETF (XLE) provides exposure to dividend-paying energy stocks and currently offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.3% [1] - Major companies within XLE, such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, are noted for their attractive dividends [2] - XLE has underperformed the overall market since 2022, particularly in the context of new all-time highs in the S&P 500 ETF [2][3] Performance Analysis - XLE has returned to the lows of the January and July 6-month calendar range, indicating potential for recovery [3] - The ETF has tested and held the 50-day moving average (DMA), suggesting some stability despite underperformance [3] - A bullish divergence in momentum is noted, with red dots above both the 50 and 200-DMAs, indicating potential for price confirmation [4] Market Dynamics - Major oil companies are believed to desire higher energy prices, as current depressed levels make drilling, fracking, or refining economically unviable [4] - XLE serves as a good indicator for monitoring energy price movements and overall sector health [4]

Core Insights - Bitcoin and gold have both experienced a year-to-date return of 28% as of July 16, 2025, indicating a trend towards diversification in investment portfolios [1][8] - The rise in international stocks, a positive return in the bond market, and gains in alternative assets have contributed to this diversification trend [1] Investment Themes - Investors are increasingly turning to ETFs to gain exposure to alternative assets like gold and bitcoin, as well as niche altcoins and precious metals [2] - Total assets under management (AUM) in gold ETFs surpassed $170 billion in April 2025, while cryptocurrency ETFs reached $123.9 billion by April 30 [3] Market Comparisons - Gold's market cap stands at approximately $22.6 trillion, significantly larger than Bitcoin's market cap of around $2.4 trillion [4] - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is the leading gold ETF with $102 billion in AUM, while the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has $48 billion [5] ETF Performance - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is projected to exceed $100 billion in AUM soon, having reached $86 billion by mid-July [7] - IBIT has grown at a remarkable pace, hitting $80 billion in just 374 days, significantly faster than previous records [7] Other Asset Performance - Other metals like platinum and palladium have seen substantial gains, with platinum up over 50% and palladium up 40% in 2025 [9] - Ether has also rebounded, moving back into positive territory after a significant decline earlier in the year [10] Emerging Trends - The crypto market is witnessing innovations and new products, with a focus on Solana and leveraged products for cryptocurrencies like XRP [11] - Active ETF AUM is on the rise, complementing the growth of low-cost index funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies [13] Conclusion - The year 2025 has been characterized by volatility, driving strong performances in gold and bitcoin, with central banks actively purchasing gold and a "buy the dip" mentality in the crypto market [14]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector, particularly the Semiconductors Sector ETF (SMH), has shown significant price movements, with potential for both profit-taking and corrections in the near term [5][6]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor companies, including notable names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom, have recently reached new all-time highs, indicating strong momentum in the sector [2]. - SMH rallied above its January 6-month calendar range in June but faced resistance in July, suggesting a critical point for future price movements [7]. - Current momentum in SMH remains strong but has not reached new all-time highs alongside price, indicating a potential divergence [7]. Russell 2000 ETF - The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) attempted to clear the July 6-month calendar range but was unsuccessful, mirroring some characteristics of SMH [9]. - IWM's performance in early July showed improvement, but it has not yet cleared significant resistance levels, which could impact future rallies [12]. - A convincing breakout above the 226-227 range for IWM could signal a strong upward trend, contingent on the retail sector (XRT) also rallying [10].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis focuses on the performance and trading patterns of crude oil futures, particularly the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), highlighting its recent underperformance and potential bullish signals. Group 1: Performance Analysis - The USO has underperformed the benchmark since late June [3] - A recent 15% correction from the peak during the Middle East crisis has occurred, with $64 acting as a significant support level [5] - The ETF is currently trading in the middle of the new July 6-month calendar range, which aligns with the 200-day moving average [3] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The momentum remains in a bullish divergence to price, indicating potential upward movement [3] - The ETF is above the 50-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average around $66.20 [4] - A move above the July calendar range high would be considered very bullish [3] Group 3: Trading Strategy - The safest trade is identified as one that clears the $68 level [5] - Holding above the $64 support level is seen as favorable for future performance [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the increasing energy demands driven by AI and the necessity for utilities to adapt to these changes [1][2] - Blackrock predicts a rise in utility demands and energy requirements for AI in the second half of 2025 [2] - OPEC+ has decided to raise its output target by 548,000 barrels per day, indicating a shift in oil supply dynamics [2] Group 2 - Despite bearish news, the oil market remains resilient, with current prices hovering just under $68, which is seen as a resistance level [3][6] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential drop in oil prices to $60, but the market currently indicates that demand is still outpacing supply [3] - If oil prices hold above $68, there is potential for bullish momentum, possibly leading to prices reaching $85 again [6] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks are resurfacing, particularly with Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, which could impact oil market stability [6] - Analysts often focus on numerical data without considering price charts, which can lead to different interpretations of market trends [7]