Market-moving information surfaces between earnings events, reshaping expectations before quarterly reporting cyclesInterim data updates offer early insight into demand, production, and profitability across key industriesMonitoring interim events helps investors anticipate volatility, refine forecasts, and manage portfolio riskMacroeconomic volatility feels like it has been ratcheted up a few notches in recent years. Stock prices, interest rates, commodity trends, and currency pairs turn on a dime, while ...

If an inverted yield curve is a harbinger of a near-term recession, then a steeper yield curve must be good news, right? Not so fast. Before unpacking that, let’s lay a bit of foundation just in case you don’t follow the shape of various yield curves very closely. Yield curve basics in 100 words: The yield curve is a measurement of bond yields of various terms from a few months to many years. Most often it has a positive slope, meaning 10-year yields are higher than 2-year yields. Locking your money up ...

With only 13% of companies reporting thus far, S&P 500 EPS growth for Q4 2025 currently stands at 8.2%The tech sector continues to dominate, Despite a significant earnings-related slide from Intel, the Information Technology sector remained the market’s primary engine, lifted by an ongoing “AI supercycle” and strong results from names like Meta and NetflixPotential earnings surprises this week: Union Pacific, NextEra Energy, Texas Instruments, UnitedHealth Group, American Express and Regeneron Pharmaceuti ...

Bond market stress, global geopolitical risk, and weather shocks at home have lifted Energy to the top sector spot YTDBaker Hughes’ Q4 report this weekend follows a slew of oil services company earnings Exxon Mobil and Chevron commentaries may be just as impactful as their Q4 numbers following the Maduro captureIt was a sea of red to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week yesterday. President Trump’s ambition to annex part or all of Greenland drew backlash from European leaders. A new set of tariffs ...

Group 1 - The "Big Six" US banks (JPM, BAC, C, WFC, MS, GS) reported strong Q4 2025 profits, with half of them missing revenue expectations due to one-time charges [1] - Investment banking showed a resurgence, and loan demand remained strong despite falling interest rates and significant restructuring charges [2] - Most banks exceeded EPS estimates, but market reactions were muted or negative due to cautious 2026 guidance and rising operational costs related to AI investments [3] Group 2 - Bank of America reported a 12% profit increase driven by record net interest income, while JPMorgan and Citigroup managed one-time cleanup costs to signal a clearer path forward [4] - As of now, 7% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, with a blended EPS growth rate of 8.2% and revenue growth expectations rising to 7.8% [5] - The Late Earnings Report Index (LERI) indicates that CEOs are more confident than ever, with a record low reading of 46 for Q4 earnings season [6][8] Group 3 - The peak earnings season for Q4 is expected to run from January 26 to February 27, with over 1,000 reports anticipated each week [11] - Upcoming earnings releases include 35 S&P 500 companies and 577 companies in the global universe of 11,000 equities [9]

The price of oil is pretty much near a five-year low, in a world where everything costs much more than it used to.Thankfully, our cars don’t run on gold. Before delving into the Canadian energy space and the developments in Venezuela, here’s a brief synopsis from our reading, research, and thinking on oil.First, there’s too much oil in the world as we move into 2026, with both supply and demand sharing the blame. Supply has increased thanks largely to a few mega projects ramping up (e.g., the facilities ...

Earnings season gets underway this week, with reports from major banks providing the first look at corporate performanceThe technology sector is expected to be the standout performer with over 25% projected earnings growth, driven by the ongoing “AI arms race”Sectors that rely on lower-end consumer spending are expected to be squeezed again by “value-conscious” shoppers, making the consumer discretionary sector a laggard this seasonThe Q4 2025 earnings season for US corporations begins this week when big ...

Inflation Trends - Inflation has continued to cool, with World Economy Weighted Inflation decreasing from 4.4% to 3.3% in 2025, aided by low supply chain pressures and moderated wage growth [1][4] - The setup for an inflationary spike similar to 2021/22 is not present, as global money growth is rising but velocity is falling [2] Economic Conditions - Inflation in the 2-4% range is favorable for equities, providing companies with pricing power and top-line growth, but concerns arise when inflation approaches 4% [3] - The U.S. faces higher inflation risks due to aggressive fiscal spending, erosion of central bank independence, and a positive output gap, while other countries like Germany, Japan, France, and Canada have negative gaps [4][5] Long-term Inflation Outlook - Inflation has eroded purchasing power by over 20% in the past four years, and while portfolio returns have kept pace, long-term inflation is expected to be higher and more volatile than in the 2010s [6] - Secular factors are becoming more inflationary, with globalization trends shifting from disinflationary to inflationary due to tariffs and supply chain diversification [7] Policy and Debt Implications - Erosion of central bank independence poses risks for monetary policy effectiveness, particularly in the U.S. and some developing countries, while fiscal spending is rising globally, which may increase inflation [8] - Total debt is disinflationary as it crowds out investment, and significant levels of debt exist in the economy [9] Technological Impact - Technology that enhances productivity is generally disinflationary, but current capital expenditures on AI infrastructure are inflationary, contributing to inflationary cyclicality [10] Investment Strategies - To mitigate the risks of higher and more volatile inflation, equities, especially those with dividend growth, are recommended as a defense, along with real asset exposure [11]

Core Insights - The stock market in 2026 may face challenges not from opposing market sentiments but from competing bullish perspectives [1] - Major banks have set S&P 500 Index targets for 2026 that are all above the current level of approximately 6,900, indicating a generally optimistic outlook [2][3] - Historical trends suggest that Wall Street's targets have often been conservative, with the exception of early 2025, which saw overly optimistic expectations [3][4] Market Sentiment - Current market conditions do not indicate a euphoric peak, but finding a unifying bullish narrative may be challenging [4] - Timing the market is complex, as it is difficult to maintain a bullish stance when consensus is overwhelmingly positive [5] - Increased market volatility is anticipated, characterized by more frequent drawdowns from market highs [5] Market Dynamics - The ongoing bull market is expected to continue, albeit with significant market rotation, which is already being observed [6] - Market rotation is beneficial for active swing traders, providing opportunities to capitalize on pullbacks in favored trends [7]

Group 1 - The Economic Modern Family Animated Series has officially launched, with content available on the company's YouTube channel [1] - The 2026 Outlook highlights a bullish bias from January to July 2026, followed by a choppier market but still constructive into 2027 [2] - Key beneficiary sectors identified for 2026 include Shipping, Transportation/Logistics, Telecom/Comms, Media & Entertainment, and Banking/Precious Metals, while laggards are Agriculture, non-precious mining, traditional construction, and Earth-heavy industries [2] Group 2 - The 2025 review confirmed the framework with emerging markets, metals, semiconductors, and AI leading, while Bitcoin and retail lagged [2] - The market personality for 2026 is characterized by active risk assets, speculative leadership, strengthening in Asia, and rising metals, with defensives lagging unless the Federal Reserve eases aggressively [2] - The Modern Family positioning for 2026 categorizes sectors into leaders, improving, mixed, and struggling, with specific ETFs identified for each category [2] Group 3 - The overarching theme for investment in 2026 is the "Infrastructure for a New World," focusing on energy grid, AI build-out, supply chains, security, health, and productivity [2] - Cross-cutting innovation drivers include AI, tokenization and decentralization, energy resilience, biotech/longevity, robotics automation, and space [2]