XIAOMI(1810.HK)3Q25 PREVIEW：EXPECT ANOTHER STRONG QUARTER ON BETTER EV BUSINESS OFFSETTING SOFTER SMARTPHONE/IOT

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi is expected to report a strong adjusted net profit growth of 60% YoY to RMB 10.01 billion for 3Q25, driven by smart EV momentum and stable IoT/internet growth [1] Smartphone Segment - Xiaomi's global shipments for 3Q25 are reported at 43.5 million units, a 1.8% YoY increase, maintaining a No.3 ranking with a market share of 13.6% [2] - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to decline slightly QoQ due to a higher mix from lower-ASP overseas markets and a decline in China shipments [2] - The company anticipates resilient gross profit margin (GPM) at 11% despite memory cost hikes, with expectations of shipment growth of 3%/7%/5% YoY for FY25-27E [2] Smart EV Segment - For the EV segment, 3Q25 deliveries are estimated at 109,000 units with a 5% QoQ increase in ASP, driven by SU7 deliveries [2] - The GPM for the EV segment is expected to slightly decline to 25% due to capacity constraints, but the EV business is projected to achieve break-even in 3Q25 [2] - For FY25E, the company expects 402,000 EV shipments supported by strong orders for YU7/Ultra models and capacity expansion [2] IoT/Internet Segment - Internet business revenue is estimated to grow by 8% YoY with a stable GPM of 75% in 3Q25E [3] - IoT business revenue is expected to increase by 5% YoY but decline by 29% QoQ, primarily due to market competition and the fading effect of subsidies in China [3]