“市场预测龙头”Polymarket即将11月底重返美国，主打体育博彩业务

Core Insights - Polymarket is preparing to return to the U.S. market focusing on sports betting after being expelled for illegal trading nearly three years ago [1] - The company plans to launch by the end of November, targeting peak trading volumes during the American football and basketball seasons [1] - Following the news, shares of U.S. gambling companies, including DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, experienced declines [1][3] Company Strategy - To ensure compliance for its return, Polymarket acquired QCX, a licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, after investigations by the DOJ and CFTC were dropped earlier this year [4] - The U.S. version of Polymarket's website has set up a waiting list for users to register for updates, indicating preparations for the platform's launch [4] Industry Trends - The return of Polymarket coincides with explosive growth in the prediction market industry, with platforms allowing users to bet on various events [6] - Competitor Kalshi recently won a lawsuit allowing it to trade on "event contracts," significantly advancing the industry [6] - Business volumes have surged to record levels as exchanges leverage federal financial licenses to operate in states where sports betting was previously prohibited [7] Regulatory Environment - Despite positive industry prospects, prediction market companies face a complex regulatory landscape and ongoing legal challenges in the U.S. [8] - Some state regulators have explicitly stated that prediction markets cannot operate within their jurisdictions, creating uncertainty for industry expansion [8] - Kalshi has filed a lawsuit against the New York State Gaming Commission, highlighting tensions between federal jurisdiction and state regulatory powers [8]